1. Climate Change Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2010
January 7, 2010

2. Class News
Ctools site: AOSS W10
2008 Class On Line:
First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming
And in particular two subsections
Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
Simple climate models

3. Today
Who am I?
Course Description Overview
Some Questions and Discussion
Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

4. What is the Point of View that I Bring?
Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, high-performance computing.
Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders.
Participant in national and international assessments of ozone depletion and environmental impact of aircraft.
Teaching this course for the fifth time.

5. What is the Point of View that I Bring?
“Complex problems with no known solutions.”
There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs.
Blog data base.

6. information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …
What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences)
Security
Food
Environmental
National
...???...
Societal Success
Standard of Living
RELIGION
POLICY
ECONOMICS
ENERGY
??????
“BUSINESS”
PUBLIC HEALTH
SOCIAL JUSTICE
Belief System
Values
Perception
Cultural Mandate
Societal Needs
information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …
SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

7. From Course Description
Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc.
Where should we pay attention?
What do we know versus what do we believe?
Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements
How big is the problem?
How is all of this changing?

8. Course Project Reflective of workplace …
“Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.”
Groups of individuals with varied expertise
Responsive to “news”
Relationship of news to science
Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem.
What are first steps?
What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken?
Monitor progress // briefing during the course
Use of community web page
Development of wiki book
Possible publication on widely accessed web site.
Presentation at end of course

9. Course News Project Grade will be determined on the project
Start to think about them – perhaps today
Teams that bring together several elements of the project
Should be no larger than 4 people.
Should not be your friends that have the same background.
Should be defined by late January
I will provide a template for thinking about the problem.
We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course
That means I will provide management / customer oversight.
Final presentations at the end
Five or less small (1 page) writing exercises during the course.

10. Who are we?
Name
Major or Interest
Any particular reason you wanted to take this course.
When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction?

11. Do you think that the planet is warming?
Questions
Do you think that the planet is warming?
Is this warming consequential?
Is this warming manmade?
Can we do something about it?

12. Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change
Some global climate predictions

13. The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

14. The prediction: Note: There is
consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C)
Also, it’s still going up in 2100!
Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial.
The prediction:
This is a remarkable opportunity. We have knowledge, with a high degree of confidence, what is likely to happen in the future.

15. Projected Global Temperature Trends
temperatures relative to
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC ‘01

16. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data. giss. nasa
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, , 2006

17. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data. giss. nasa
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, , 2006

18. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years
Figure SPM.3. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961–1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal average values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {FAQ 3.1, Figure 1, Figure 4.2, Figure 5.13}

19. What parameters/events do we care about?
Temperature
Water
Precipitation
Evaporation
Humidity
Air Composition
Air quality
Aerosols
Carbon dioxide
Winds
Clouds / Sunlight
Droughts
Floods
Extreme Weather
The impact of climate change is
Water for Ecosystems
Water for People
Water for Energy
Water for Physical Climate

20. Thanks
We’ll really get started next time!