THORPEX report to the CAS Management Group Alan Dickinson ICSC Chair September 2010

THORPEX Organisational Structure International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) Regional Committees Africa Asia Europe North America Southern Hemisphere Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies Working Group DAOS WG Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group PDP WG Global Interactive Forecasting System – THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble Working Group GIFS-TIGGE WG September 2010

THORPEX Working Groups Since 31 January 2010, the three THORPEX Working Groups have met:  GIFS TIGGE Working Group Eighth Meeting; WMO, Geneva (22-24 February 2010) THORPEX ICSC PDP Working Group Third Meeting; ETH, Zurich (5-7 July 2010) – this meeting was followed by a Workshop on “Diagnosis of Model Errors” (7-9 July 2010)  THORPEX ICSC DAOS Working Group Third Meeting; University of Québec at Montréal (UQAM) Montréal (8-9 July 2010) September 2010

GIFS developments – collaboration with the Steering Group for Severe Weather Demonstration Projects As a result of the joint meeting, it was agreed to formalize links between SWFDP SG and GIFS-TIGGE WG, with cross-representation at WG/SG level and appropriate representation of GIFS-TIGGE WG on regional implementation groups It was also clear from the joint session that the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group’s main role in FDPs is to provide support to FDPs organised by CBS and the WWRP for example rather than establish and implement FDPs which are more appropriately carried out on the regional or national level. September 2010

GIFS developments – collaboration with the Steering Group for Severe Weather Demonstration Projects The meeting agreed on a possible timeframe for introducing the GIFS-TIGGE products into the SWFDP, as follows: (a) For Tropical Cyclone data sets – 1 year; (b) For rainfall and wind – 2 to 3 years, depending on the availability of observational data sets. September 2010

Impact of targeted observations There is a consensus that extra-tropical targeted data are about 2-3 times more valuable than the same number of observations deployed randomly. This should be stated. Results from the adjoint-based observation impact calculations can be used to explain why we cannot consistently get large impacts from a few targeted observations. Targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of tropical cyclone track have provided demonstrable overall positive impact although the results vary somewhat from model to model The impact of targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of extra-tropical storms is less clear to date. Targeting for longer-range forecasts is an interesting research topic, but results are not mature enough to make an authoritative statement. However, the review paper will state the current position on this topic. Broader-scale regime-based targeting seems the most promising approach. September 2010

PDP Working Group Activities Collaboration with the WGNE formalized PDP summer school in Banff (10 to 15 July, 2011) PDP and WGNE Workshop recommendations Indian Summer Monsoon Cyclonic systems September 2010

Regional Committees   It is planned to review the progress with the THORPEX Africa Implementation Plan at the WMO Regional Association I meeting that will take place in Morocco in November 2010. The 7th Asian Regional Committee (ARC) meeting was held just after the 3rd Asian THORPEX Scientific Workshop, in Seopogi, Jeju Island, Republic of Korea on June 5 2010. The European THORPEX Research and Implementations Plans have been published; next meeting of ERC – May 2011 September 2010

Regional Committees   North America Regional Committee (NARC) – Mexico (May, 2010) Provision of an overview of the accomplishments and future directions of the International THORPEX programme Expansion of NARC membership to include several meteorological groups in Mexico and representatives from Central America and the Caribbean Provision of ann overview of the priorities and challenges to improve high impact weather in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean An activity report from the SHRC will become available after the SHRC’s next meeting. September 2010

GEO THORPEX continues to support the development of the weather element of the GEOSS. There are three main areas of activity TIGGE and the development of a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) (WE-06-03) THORPEX Africa (WE-09-01b) Towards Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction (CL-09-01a); in this Task the main activity at present is YOTC; however, it is hoped that the planned sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction and polar projects will be included in due course. These three Tasks represent the most significant GEO weather activities. Efforts continue to be made working through GEO to improve funding levels and resources for these initiatives. Most recently a European Union FP7 Call has been issued which refers directly to the further development of TIGGE and the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI). Plans are being made to form a consortium to respond to this Call to secure significant external funding for future TIGGE activities September 2010

International Collaboration and Integration of Models and Observations ECMWF Database May ‘08 – Apr ’10 (relevant not just to YOTC) Research Focus MJO & Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ITCZ, Easterly Waves,TCs Trop-ExtraTrop Interaction Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability Diurnal Cycle International Collaboration and Integration of Models and Observations

The golden age of Earth observations A-TRAIN constellation of satellites “CloudSat” and “CALIPSO” for YOTC This ‘observing system’ views the atmosphere in a variety of ways – each providing different information in a coincident way

YOTC archives, analysis, dissemination and visualization ECMWF high resolution analyses, forecasts and diagnostics are on-line for the whole YOTC period NCEP analyses, forecasts and diagnostics are being made available NASA GEOS-5 contributions on-line. The NASA has provided funding to enable the Goddard Giovanni system to be adapted for YOTC satellite data analysis dissemination and visualization and the YOTC Giovanni system will be available in about one year. September 2010

WORKSHOPS Polar Prediction (Oslo, 6 to 8 October, 2010) It is expected that the main outcome of the Oslo workshop will be the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research Project that provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and development efforts to improve operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions and facilitate climate predictions up to a season. Seasonal Prediction (Exeter, 1 to 3 December, 2010) To identify high-priority research topics and demonstration projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment of an international research project. September 2010

WORKING GROUP MEMBERSHIP All three THORPEX Working have been reviewing requirements for a turnover of the members, new co-Chairs and additional members. The CAS Management should develop membership rules for the WWRP/JSC and the WWRP Working Groups which could be adopted by the THORPEX ICSC. September 2010

MID-TERM REVIEW The THORPEX Working Groups and Regional Committees have been asked to submit short summaries of recent achievements, current challenges and future plans by the end of November 2010. The IPO will then prepare a summary paper for review by the THORPEX community and eventually the ICSC and WWRPJSC in 2011. September 2010