1. WWRP 1 October 2010 THORPEX report to the WGNE David Burridge THORPEX IPO

2. WWRP 2 October 2010

3. WWRP 3 October 2010 THORPEX – WGNE collaboration i. Atmospheric composition particularly the inclusion of aerosol in NWP systems is currently being discussed by the WGNE and WWRP efforts should await the outcome of this discussion ii. …… iii. ….. iv. It was agreed that WWRP/THORPEX should be involved in the model development survey and the follow-up – THORPEX should consider what support can be given by the PDP Working Group v. It was agreed that the PDP Working Group would be involved in the WGNE in the Parametrization Workshop vi. It was recommended that the planned YOTC science meetings should be broadened; in addition, a synoptic summary of the tropical events/weather during the YOTC year should be prepared

4. WWRP 4 October 2010 THORPEX – WGNE collaboration vii. The GEWEX and THORPEX support for HyMeX should be coordinated as should the support, where appropriate, for T-NAWDEX viii. The development of HEPEX should be monitored ix. The WGNE and the PDP Working Group should establish cross-representation on each group; the PDP Working Group should write-up a diagnostic work- programme in collaboration with the WGNE x. ….. xi. Communications between the groups should be improved Scientific Leadership of THORPEX– Reports to/receives advice from WWRPJSC; receives advice from WGNE.

5. WWRP THORPEX Working Groups Since 31 January 2010, the three THORPEX Working Groups have met: GIFS TIGGE Working Group Eighth Meeting; WMO, Geneva (22-24 February 2010) THORPEX ICSC PDP Working Group Third Meeting; ETH, Zurich (5-7 July 2010) – this meeting was followed by a Workshop on Diagnosis of Model Errors (7-9 July 2010) THORPEX ICSC DAOS Working Group Third Meeting; University of Québec at Montréal (UQAM) Montréal (8-9 July 2010) 5 October 2010

6. WWRP 6 October 2010 The TIGGE Archive Ensemble forecasts are collected in near-real time using a common format at three data archive and distribution centres: China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) The operational forecasting centres supplying daily global forecasts are: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Brazilian Centra de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climatico (CPTEC) China Meteorological Administration (CMA) The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Météo-France (MF) UK Met Office (UKMO) US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Data flow that builds the TIGGE Archives

7. WWRP 7 October 2010 Research using TIGGE Data The TIGGE data set is a major resource for research and development for weather forecasting, including: calibration of ensemble forecasts, including bias correction and downscaling combination of ensembles produced by multiple models development of probabilistic forecast products. predictability and dynamical processes hydrological applications This list is not exhaustive. The TIGGE website includes a full listing of TIGGE research publications. TIGGE-LAM To complement the global TIGGE data set, a panel of experts (called TIGGE-LAM) has been set-up to organize a limited-area-model component of TIGGE. High-priority data from LAM ensemble prediction systems will be also available from the three archive centres. See http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/ for more information. http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/

8. WWRP GIFS developments – collaboration with the Steering Group for Severe Weather Demonstration Projects As a result of the joint meeting, it was agreed to formalize links between SWFDP SG and GIFS-TIGGE WG, with cross-representation at WG/SG level and appropriate representation of GIFS-TIGGE WG on regional implementation groups It was also clear from the joint session that the GIFS- TIGGE Working Groups main role in FDPs is to provide support to FDPs organised by CBS and the WWRP for example rather than establish and implement FDPs which are more appropriately carried out on the regional or national level. 8 October 2010

9. WWRP GIFS developments – collaboration with the Steering Group for Severe Weather Demonstration Projects The meeting agreed on a possible timeframe for introducing the GIFS-TIGGE products into the SWFDP, as follows: (a)For Tropical Cyclone data sets – 1 year; (b)For rainfall and wind – 2 to 3 years, depending on the availability of observational data sets. 9 October 2010

10. WWRP 10 October 2010 Outlook TIGGE provides the basis for the development of a future Global Interactive Forecast System. GIFS aims to improve the probabilistic early warnings of severe weather based on TIGGE research and other strands of the THORPEX programme. As a first step, GIFS products are being developed to support forecasts of tropical cyclones and heavy precipitation, to be tested in regional Forecast Development Projects in collaboration with the CBS Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects GIFS products

11. WWRP DAOS WG - IMPACT OF TARGETED OBSERVATIONS There is a consensus that extra-tropical targeted data are about 2-3 times more valuable than the same number of observations deployed randomly. Targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of tropical cyclone track have provided demonstrable positive impact. The impact of targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of extra-tropical storms is less clear to date. Sharan Majumdar to prepare a draft of the paper during the next few months - The target should be for a definitive draft agreed by the Working Group for the next ICSC meeting.. 11 October 2010

12. WWRP DAOS WG - need for additional in- situ observations There is increasing evidence based upon results from A- TREC, TPARC, AMMA (in the form of OSEs, adjoint- based observation impact studies, and analysis uncertainty estimates) to recommend, if feasible, increases in observations from: Commercial aircraft over the N. Pacific, N. Atlantic, and the S. Hemisphere in general. Additional soundings from certain coastal radiosondes, including those in eastern Siberia, and perhaps selected stations in polar regions, Africa, and South America. to improve NWP forecasts in the 2-5 day timeframe. 12 October 2010

13. WWRP Winter reconnaissance flights Generally speaking it was found that 70% of forecasts were improved with typically a 10-20% reduction in forecast error for these cases of high impact weather. This equated to a 12 hour gain in prediction skill. It was also found that WSR data has 2.7 times more impact per observation than an observation from a random area During its July meeting the Working Group also gave further advice to NOAA scientists on the re-runs that will be undertaken as a part of the re-evaluation of the number of the past US Winter Storms Reconnaissance campaigns. 13 October 2010

14. WWRP WWRP/JSC 3 The IPY-THORPEX Cluster 10 individual projects (see WMO Bulletin Oct. 2007) The objectives of the IPY-THORPEX Cluster are: Explore use of satellite data and optimised observations to improve high impact weather forecasts Better understand physical/dynamical processes in polar regions Achieve a better understanding of small scale weather phenomena Utilise improved forecasts to the benefit of society, the economy and the environment 14 October 2010

15. WWRP WWRP/JSC 3 GFDex overview edition of Bull. Amer. Met. Soc Quarterly Journal of the RMetS 15 October 2010

16. WWRP WWRP/JSC 3 Conclusions (targeted obs) Four targeted observing flights were conducted during GFDex, around southern Greenland and Iceland Targeted sonde data was used by the data assimilation system to modify the background state and influence the forecast via analysis increments The forecast improvement is small compared to the forecast error for the same period; targeted observations have both improved and degraded the forecast The 1 st March case showed that modification of the upper-level PV anomaly by the inclusion of targeted sonde data led to forecast improvement propagating into the Scandinavian verification region with a developing polar low 16 October 2010

17. WWRP WWRP/JSC 3 The International Project Concordiasi 17 October 2010

18. WWRP WWRP/JSC 3 Major goals Objectives Concordiasi To improve the assimilation of satellite data over the southern polar region, with an emphasis on the data provided by the new IASI sounder. To improve understanding of the stratospheric ozone budget through examination of the interaction of ozone observations at flight level and stratospheric clouds, together with the improved characterization of the polar vortex. To evaluate the impact of better analyses and forecasts on ozone profile simulations in chemical transport models. To evaluate the impact of the large scale improvements on local analyses and forecasts at Concordia. To provide recommendations on the design of the global observing system over the southern polar region by determining the extent to which additional observations over Antarctica can improve the prediction of high impact weather over lower latitudes. 18 October 2010

19. WWRP WWRP/JSC 3 IPY Legacy Data for improving physical parameterization in NWP models, -clouds, microphysics, surf fluxes Improved assimilation techniques for high latitudes with emphasis on satellites data Increased understanding on the effect of the use of ensemble simulations for high latitudes Increased understanding on the effect of targeting in high latitudes Increased understanding of dynamics of high latitude, high impact weather phenomena Demonstration of the effect of new instruments Demonstration of the effect of increased Arctic and Antarctic observations for local and extra-tropical NWP forecasting 19 October 2010

20. WWRP PDP Working Group Activities Collaboration with the WGNE formalized PDP summer school in Banff (10 to 15 July, 2011) Workshop on stochastic parametrization PDP and WGNE Workshop recommendations 20 October 2010

21. WWRP Collaboration between the PDP Working Group and the WGNE The key area for collaboration was seen as model error and model development and the ICSC and the WGNE agreed that there should cross-representation between the PDP Working Group and the WGNE. To this end, Thomas Jung would represent the PDP Working Group on the WGNE and Andy Brown would represent the WGNE on the PDP Working Group. One of the first results of this collaboration was the joint organisation of the PDP/WGNE Workshop on Model Errors (7-9 July, 2010). 21 October 2010

22. WWRP YOTC archives, analysis, dissemination and visualization ECMWF high resolution analyses, forecasts and diagnostics are on-line for the whole YOTC period NCEP analyses, forecasts and diagnostics are being made available NASA GEOS-5 contributions on-line. The NASA has provided funding to enable the Goddard Giovanni system to be adapted for YOTC satellite data analysis dissemination and visualization and the YOTC Giovanni system will be available in about one year. 22 October 2010

23. WWRP ana +3.5 fc +3.5 ana +5 fc +5 T850 and SLP Warm conveyor belts & forecast busts 23 October 2010

24. WWRP T-NAWDEX THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment Proposed at European THORPEX meeting by PDP Working Group in 2006 Strong interest from UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Canada, USA,... Science focus on diabatic effects on North Atlantic weather systems (dynamics and predictive skill) Funding (so far) mainly on national level: - UK: project DIAMET (Vaughan, Methven, Parker, Renfrew et al.) - Germany: HALO THORPEX demo mission (Dörnbrack et al.) - Germany: PANDOWAE research group (Jones et al.) - Switzerland: ETH contribution (Wernli et al.) 24 October 2010

25. WWRP HALO - High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft Ob Key specifications: -max. altitude more than 15 km -range well above 10000 km or more than 10 flight hours -maximum payload of 3 tons Demo-Mission HALO-THORPEX as nucleus for T-NAWDEX field phase in conjunction with HyMeX 25 October 2010

26. WWRP 26 October 2010 THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group and WGNE Workshop Diagnosis of Model Errors ETH, Zurich - 7 to 9 July 2010 Relevant dynamical and physical processes Challenges, opportunities and strategies for model development Diagnostic techniques

27. WWRP 27 October 2010 Datasets The YOTC datasets (http://www.ucar.edu/yotc/data.html). Can be used to carry out much more process-oriented research.http://www.ucar.edu/yotc/data.html ECMWF reanalysis activities, 10-day hindcasts (ERA-40) (ERA-Interim). Data to study flow-dependence of forecast error; identify source of so- called forecast busts).......

28. WWRP 28 October 2010 Recommendations and follow-on activities The results presented in the workshop showed (i) state-of-the-art models still suffer from substantial errors and (ii) that diagnostic work has the potential to inform model developers about model problems at the process level and therefore provide information necessary to guide model development.

29. WWRP 29 October 2010 It was decided to start joint projects to look more closely at two phenomena Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM): The ISM is a large- scale phenomenon which is poorly handled by most models. The monsoon problem is an ideal test case to demonstrate that the use of different diagnostic techniques can provide information that leads to model improvements. It was appreciated that this project could profit from other activities within YOTC and the MJO/ ISM field experiment planned for 2011(CINDY/DYNAMO - coordinated by University of Miami). Next steps: The project will start by building on the existing collaboration between ECMWF and the MetOffice. For the future it is planned to invite other centres through WGNE. Progress will be reported in future meetings (e.g. PDP, WGNE and suitable conferences).

30. WWRP 30 October 2010 It was decided to start joint projects to look more closely at two phenomena Cyclonic Systems (CS): What makes CS an attractive choice is that physics-dynamics interactions are crucial and that CS are a major source of severe weather. Next steps: Considerable work is in progress in refining existing diagnostic techniques to understand CS and how they are represented in models. Compile the latest results and to kick-start the project by giving a joint presentation entitled Diagnosis of Cyclonic Systems at the Cyclone Workshop, which will be held in March 27 - April 1 2011. This project has clear links to the activities planned in T-NAWDEX.

31. WWRP GEO THORPEX continues to support the development of the weather element of the GEOSS. There are three main areas of activity TIGGE and the development of a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) (WE-06-03) THORPEX Africa (WE-09-01b) Towards Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction (CL-09-01a); in this Task the main activity at present is YOTC; however, it is hoped that the planned sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction and polar projects will be included in due course. These three Tasks represent the most significant GEO weather activities. Efforts continue to be made working through GEO to improve funding levels and resources for these initiatives. Most recently a European Union FP7 Call has been issued which refers directly to the further development of TIGGE and the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI). Plans are being made to form a consortium to respond to this Call to secure significant external funding for future TIGGE activities 31 October 2010

32. WWRP MID-TERM REVIEW The THORPEX Working Groups and Regional Committees have been asked to submit short summaries of recent achievements, current challenges and future plans by the end of November 2010. The IPO will then prepare a summary paper for review by the THORPEX community and eventually the ICSC and WWRPJSC in 2011. 32 October 2010

33. WWRP October 2010 Pieter Brueghel the Elder WWRP GLOBAL PREDICTION RESEARCH First source of inspiration Tower of Babel WWRP (WCRP) GLOBAL PREDICTION 33

34. WWRP October 2010 34 CBSXIV March 2009 HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend 34

35. WWRP ECMWF Database May 08 – Apr 10 (relevant not just to YOTC) Research Focus MJO & Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ITCZ, Easterly Waves,TCs Trop-ExtraTrop Interaction Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability Diurnal Cycle International Collaboration and Integration of Models and Observations 35 October 2010

36. WWRP This observing system views the atmosphere in a variety of ways – each providing different information in a coincident way The golden age of Earth observations A-TRAIN constellation of satellites CloudSat and CALIPSO for YOTC 36 October 2010

37. WWRP October 2010 CASXVNew projects Polar Prediction project – The Commission concurred with the Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services on the requirement for effective collaboration and therefore recommended that any efforts to develop a future prediction system include outcomes from the IPY-THORPEX cluster of projects and from the planned THORPEX Legacy Project Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – ….the Commission requested the JSCs of the WWRP and the WCRP and also the THORPEX ICSC to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is closely coordinated with the present existing CBS infrastructure for long- range forecasting (with centres producing long-range forecasts and regional climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3. 37

38. WWRP WORKSHOPS Polar Prediction (Oslo, 6 to 8 October, 2010) It is expected that the main outcome of the Oslo workshop will be the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research Project that provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and development efforts to improve operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions and facilitate climate predictions up to a season. Seasonal Prediction (Exeter, 1 to 3 December, 2010) To identify high-priority research topics and demonstration projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment of an international research project. 38 October 2010

39. WWRP 39 October 2010 Workshop Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Met Office, Exeter –1 to 3 December 2010 The main goals of this Workshop are to establish current capabilities in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, to identify high-priority research topics and demonstration projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment of an international research project – to be written up by David Anderson. Focus 1-90 days. Scene setting Operational systems (a flavour) Major scientific modelling problems and their diagnosis Data assimilation and EPS Data bases and observations Societal and economic benefits

40. WWRP 40 October 2010 Workshop Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Met Office, Exeter –1 to 3 December 2010 Major scientific modelling problems and their diagnosis The Atlantic – the NAO, AO and the MJO Tropical modes in the Indian and Pacific Oceans El Nino and its global tele-connections Blocking and regime transitions Stratospheric influences on the troposphere Land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions

41. WWRP 41 October 2010 Workshop Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Met Office, Exeter –1 to 3 December 2010 Data assimilation and EPS Coupled data assimilation Ensemble data assimilation Monthly forecasting with ensembles Representing model uncertainty on seasonal time scales Data bases and observations TIGGE The CHFP The YOTC data bases Societal and economic benefits An African demonstration project (AMMA) A South American demonstration project A South Asian demonstration project An Insurance project

42. WWRP October 2010 Jan Bruegel the Younger WWRP GLOBAL PREDICTION RESEARCH Second source of inspiration Joint activity supported by WWRP, THORPEX, and WCRP/WGNE ? Steering Group? (size?) Implementation Plan? - utilizing the existing groups Sub-projects...........? Modus Operandi – workshops; science meetings............? Next steps? PARADISE GLOBAL PREDICTION 42

43. WWRP Future emphasis Basic issues of predictability and key dynamical processes The required initial conditions and implied observational coverage Strategies for observations targeting in critical situations Tackling the problem issues in data assimilation especially at high resolution Handling of the tropics particularly organised convection, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transition and interactions Polar weather Seamless prediction of weather and climate from days to weeks and seasons October 2010 43

44. WWRP October 201044