THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION African Futures and Drivers More Important or More Impoverished? THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION African Futures and Drivers More Important.

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Presentation transcript:

THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION African Futures and Drivers More Important or More Impoverished? THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION African Futures and Drivers More Important or More Impoverished? Greg Mills

Six Drivers People Growth and Differentiation Democracy and Conflict Resources Food Competitiveness and Technology

SSA Population: Source: United Nations 4

Some facts worth pondering … -Between 1950 and 2050, Asias population will have grown by a factor of 3.7. Africas population, from 2000 to 2100, will grow by a factor of Growth rates are driven by lifespan increases and birth- rates (average is 4.9 children per woman ). -Eg. Tanzania: 45 million people today; 2100, projected 276 million. Nigeria: 160m today, one billion by Just 56 percent of Africans are at working-age. Dependency ratios will improve radically. -A demographic dividend is possible. -One in four young people will, by 2025, be from SSA.

The Urbanization Phenomenon Source: United Nations 6

8 UPSIDEDOWNSIDE PEACE DIVIDENDRISING INEQUALITY BETTER GOVERNANCESMALL MIDDLE-CLASS POVERTY DOWNLOW SAVINGS DIFFERENTIATIONPOOR INFRASTRUCTURE

9

Much has been achieved – democracies - Range of donors and allies - Governance improved - Growth over 5% - More honest inward scrutiny - Commodities revival …

A hungry man is an angry man. Raila Odinga

AngolaEthiopiaNiger BeninGabonNigeria BotswanaGambiaSao Tome and Principe Burkina FasoGhanaSenegal BurundiGuineaSeychelles CameroonGuinea-BissauSierra Leone Cape VerdeKenyaSomalia Central African RepublicLesothoSouth Africa ChadLiberiaSudan ComorosMadagascarSwaziland Congo, Dem Republic ofMalawiTanzania, United Rep of Congo, Republic ofMaliTogo Côte dIvoireMauritaniaUganda DjiboutiMauritiusZambia Equatorial GuineaMozambiqueZimbabwe EritreaNamibia Africas net food importers

AngolaEthiopiaNiger BeninGabonNigeria BotswanaGambiaSao Tome and Principe Burkina FasoGhanaSenegal BurundiGuineaSeychelles CameroonGuinea-BissauSierra Leone Cape VerdeKenyaSomalia Central African RepublicLesothoSouth Africa ChadLiberiaSudan ComorosMadagascarSwaziland Congo, Dem Republic ofMalawiTanzania, United Rep of Congo, Republic ofMaliTogo Côte dIvoireMauritaniaUganda DjiboutiMauritiusZambia Equatorial GuineaMozambiqueZimbabwe EritreaNamibia Africas net food importers: 39 of 49

Cereal Yields (Kg/Ha) in Developing Countries Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia

22 Thank you very much