Reports to TIGGE – 9, Geneva Aug 31- Sept 2, 2011

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Presentation transcript:

Reports to TIGGE – 9, Geneva Aug 31- Sept 2, 2011 Laurence Wilson Associate Scientist Emeritus Environment Canada

A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of Weather and Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions” (6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway)

Principle Outcomes Main Outcome: “the establishment of a basis for an IPY legacy project which is intended to provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions” Recommendations Verification Undertake WMO standard verification separately poleward of 60 deg Same for ensemble verification Strengthen verification activity using opnl and res databases such as TIGGE Data assimilation Use of new satellite programs and sounders (IASI, AIRS; Canadian Polar and communication mission) Data assimilation experiments to determine the utility of existing and new sources of satellite data Data mining of existing databases Need for new observations in polar areas December 2, 2018

Recommendations (cont’d) Predictability and physical and dynamic processes New field campaigns to study physical processes Need to collaborate with WCRP to mount well-planned coupled model experiments in the arctic focus on research and development for coupled atmosphere–hydrological–cryosphere–surface modelling and observation Scientific challenges Basically everything to do with modeling Scientific steering committee being formed To be chaired by Thomas Jung (tentative) TIGGE mentioned several times at the meeting – as a helper in designing datasets for community research efforts December 2, 2018

Canadian EPS update

New System operational 17 Aug 2011 Documentation already on ECMWF site 600x300 grid - ~66 km grid (100 km) 40 levels (28) Implicit computation of sfc physics Latitudinal ramp in convection Staggered vertical grid Model top at 2 hPa (10) Several changes in physics package EnKF: 192 members (96) Now assimilating AMSU-A and GPS-ro in the stratosphere December 2, 2018

Upper air verification December 2, 2018

CRPS Z500 and 850 December 2, 2018

Spread and RMSE – upper air December 2, 2018

Results of tests - sfc December 2, 2018

Surface temperature and wind December 2, 2018

Spread and RMSE - surface December 2, 2018