1. The WWRP Polar Prediction Project
Thomas Jung (chair)
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
October 2012

2. Outline Background Steering group Mission statement Research goals
Year of Polar Prediction
Recent developments
Outlook
International context
Summary

3. Background
November 2009: CAS recommended establishment of an IPY legacy project
October 2010: WWRP workshop held in Norway
September 2011: THORPEX ICSC endorsed polar prediction project
September 2011: Formation of a steering group

4. WWRP-PPP Steering Group
SG2, Montreal, March 2012
Thomas Jung (chair)
Peter Bauer
Chris Fairall
David Bromwich
Trond Iversen
Marika Holland
Brian Mills
Pertti Nurmi
Ian Renfrew
Gregory Smith
Gunilla Svensson
Mikhail Tolstykh
Paco Doblas Reyes (ex-officio)
Peter Lemke (ex-officio)
Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)

5. Background
November 2009: CAS recommended establishment of an IPY legacy project
October 2010: WWRP workshop held in Norway
September 2011: THORPEX ICSC endorsed polar prediction project
September 2011: Formation of a steering group
December 2011: 1st SG meeting (discussion of implementation plan)
March 2012: 2nd SG meeting (review of draft implementation/science plan)

6. Draft Implementation Plan

7. Mission Statement
„Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal“ An important addition: „This constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)“

8. Research Areas Services Underpinning research
Societal and Economic Research Applications (SERA)
Verification
Services
Predictability and Diagnostics
Teleconnections
Underpinning research
Data Assimilation
Ensemble Forecasting
Modelling
Observations
Forecasting system development

9. Verification of ensemble forecasts in the Arctic
Jung and Leutbecher (2007)

10. Mean temperature tendencies
Tropics: Sea points
Arctic: Sea and sea ice points
ECMWF model
6-hourly initial tendencies
120 forecasts (DJF )
Figure courtesy of S. Serrar (AWI)

11. Temperature tendencies: Stdev
Tropics: Sea points
Arctic: Sea and sea ice points
Figure courtesy of S. Serrar (AWI)

12. Role of Sea Ice in Medium-Range Weather Forecasting
T2m Difference: Observed Minus Persisted Sea Ice
Background: One set of 10-day weather forecasts has been run with observed sea ice (in hindcast mode) and the other with persistet sea ice. Shown is the mean difference for October 2011 in 2m temperature between the run with observed and persisted (that‘s what is done operationally at ECMWF) SST. The effect of growing sea ice has already a noticable effect on T2m after a few days. (We need coupled models for polar weather prediction)
Figure courtesy of P. Bauer (ECMWF)

13. Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Aim: Intensive observational and modelling period to advance polar prediction capabilities. This will be augmented by research into forecast-stakeholder interaction, verification and a strong educational component Important: Needs to be aligned with other (planned) activities such as MOSAiC.

14. YOPP: Time line

15. Preparation phase

16. Year of Polar Prediction

17. Consolidation phase

18. Other Activities
Polar prediction flyer

19. Other Activities Polar prediction brochure
Presentations (a total of 12 since December 2012)
Education and outreach: team up with APECS

20. Outlook (selected) Month Milestone Oct 2012
Send out draft Implementation Plan
Nov 2012
Feedback from the community
Nov/Dec 2012
Revise and finalize implementation plan
Make advertisement for trust fund
Dec 2012
3rd steering group meeting (full attendance!)
Finalize implementation plan
Discuss science plan
Start planning for YOPP
Develop plans for International Coordination Office
Develop education strategy
Jan 2013
Launch of the Polar Prediction Project and International Coordination Office
Jun 2013
Workshop on Polar Prediction at ECMWF

21. International context

22. Linkages with WCRP Background:
WWRP: Sufficiently similar to have a joint project
WCRP: Sufficiently different to have a joint project
Some truths in both statements
Observing systems, model development, ensemble methods etc.
Weather forecasting vs. regional sea level change projections
We need to find a plausible way to ensure coordination!

23. The Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)
Has been proposed by EC-PORS
Global: International effort and poles have global influence on systems (weather, climate, biological...)
Integrated: Reflects interconnections between system and the System itself will be integrated (research, observations and services)
Approved by Cg-XVI in 2011

24. The three components of GIPPS
Short-term
Medium-term
Long-term
Hours to seasons
Years to decades
Centuries
WWRP
WCRP
Options:
Merge into one project
Develop a strategy that ensures coordination: International Coordination Office, joint expert groups etc.

25. Summary WWRP Polar Prediction Project well on course
Steering group has been formed
Draft implementation plan has been developed
PPP has been presented at many occasions
Major issues
Trust fund
Collaboration with WCRP
Approach funding agencies
Make sure that what has been written in the plans will be delivered...

26. Thank you!

27. Strategies to Achieve Research Goals
Develop strong linkages with other initiatives
Strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational prediction centres
Establish linkages with space agencies and other data providers
Establish and exploit special research data sets
Promote interactions and collaboration between research and stakeholders
Foster education and outreach

28. SERA Link with forecast user community (two-way)
Goal: Understand and evaluate the use of enhanced prediction information and services in polar regions
Link with forecast user community (two-way)
Communication of risk, opportunity and uncertainty across user types
Estimation and analysis of historic and current use
Develop/test framework to define and assess expected polar and lower-latitude benefits in relation to cost
Monitor/evaluate actual decision-making behaviour, costs and benefits

29. Verification Verify existing forecasting systems in the polar regions
Goal: Establish and apply verification methods appropriate for polar regions
Verify existing forecasting systems in the polar regions
Develop key performance headline measures with polar relevance to monitor progress
Devise methods that can be used to verify user-relevant key weather and climate phenomena in polar regions (e.g. blizzards and fog-visibility)
Define an observation strategy to meet forecast verification requirements
Develop forecast verification in observation space using, for example, satellite data simulators

30. Predictability and Diagnostics
Goal: Determine predictability and identify key sources of forecast errors in polar regions
Determine
Mechanisms providing predictability
Instabilities of the polar climate system
Structure of imperfections (analysis and model error)
Apply/develop diagnostic techiques that help to understand model error at the process level
Central: Explore the role of sea ice (time scales from days to seasonal)

31. Background
November 2009: CAS recommended establishment of an IPY legacy project
October 2010: WWRP workshop held in Norway
September 2011: THORPEX ICSC endorsed polar prediction project
September 2011: Formation of a steering group
December 2011: 1st SG meeting (discussion of implementation plan)
March 2012: 2nd SG meeting (review of draft implementation/science plan)
June 2012: Polar prediction project is approved by EC-64

32. International Collaboration
Forecasting brings together different communities!
Consultation on the Implementation Plan will increase collaboration
Cross-membership (e.g. WWRP-PPP and EC-PORS)
Incentives
YOPP
Special data sets (establishment and use)
Workshops, conference meetings and summer schools
International project office (AWI happy to host!)

33. Strengthening Linkages Between Academia, Research Institutions and Operational Centres
Modify funding schemes following UK, USA and Canadian examples (e.g. researchers are required to spend time at operational centres)
Provision of computing time, experimental support and special data sets by operational centres
Ensure continual near-real-time availability (e.g. GTS) of future operational and experimental campaign observations
Committee work

34. Establish and Exploit Special Research Data Sets
Inventory of existing data sets: TIGGE, YOTC, reforecasts, DEMETER, Athena etc.
Formulate special requirements and devise special experiments together with other working groups (e.g. WGNE and SG Subseasonal and Seasonal Prediction)
Limited value from case studies!
Need for long sustainable, openly accessible data sets
High-resolution reanalysis

35. Others Strategic Issues
Write BAMS paper about WWRP Polar Prediction Project
Prepare WWRP-PPP brochure for funding agencies and stakeholders
Linkages with space agencies and data providers
Liaise with WMO Polar Space Task Group
Promote interaction and communication between researchers and stakeholders
Identification of stakeholders: NMHS, Arctic Council, private sector companies etc.
Organize meetings to bring communities together
Education and outreach (collaboration with APECS)

36. Implementation Plan Table of Contents Introduction Mission statement
Benefits
Research Plan Goals
Societal and Research Applications (SERA)
Verification
Predictability and Diagnostics
Teleconnections
Modelling
Ensemble Forecasting
Data Assimilation
Observations
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Strategies to Achieve the Goals
Develop and Maintain Strong Linkages with Other Initiatives
Strengthen Linkages Between Academia, Research Institutions and Operational Centres
Establish Linkages with Space Agencies and Other Data Providers
Establish and Exploits Special Research Data Sets
Promote Interaction and Collaboration Between Research and Stakeholders
Foster Education and Outreach
Implementation Schedule
...

37. Mean T Ensemble Forecast Spread
Ensemble Spread
RMS An Increment
200 hPa
1000 hPa
Figure courtesy of P. Bauer (ECMWF)

38. WWRP-PPP Steering Group
Thomas Jung (chair)
Peter Bauer
Chris Fairall
David Bromwich
Trond Iversen
Marika Holland
Brian Mills
Pertti Nurmi
Ian Renfew
Gregory Smith
Gunilla Svensson
Mikhail Tolstykh
Paco Doblas Reyes (ex-officio)
Peter Lemke (ex-officio)
Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)

39. Implementation Plan Table of Contents Executive Summary Introduction
Mission statement
Benefits
Research Plan Goals
Societal and Research Applications (SERA)
Verification
Predictability and Diagnostics
Teleconnections
Modelling
Ensemble Forecasting
Data Assimilation
Observations
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Strategies to Achieve the Goals
Develop and Maintain Strong Linkages with Other Initiatives
Strengthen Linkages Between Academia, Research Institutions and Operational Centres
Establish Linkages with Space Agencies and Other Data Providers
Establish and Exploits Special Research Data Sets
Promote Interaction and Collaboration Between Research and Stakeholders
Foster Education and Outreach
Implementation Schedule
...

40. Deterministic Skill: Z500 Arctic
Jung and Leutbecher (2007)

41. International Collaboration

42. Benefit Areas

43. Benefit Areas (cont‘d)
Jung et al. (2010)

44. Stochastic Sea Ice Parametrizations
Ensemble Spread
Interannual variability
Juricke et al., in preparation

45. New TIGGE Products (cont‘d)
60S-90S
Figure courtesy of Mio Matsueda (Oxford)

46. Topograhic Jets and Resolution
Jung and Rhines (2007)

47. Deterministic Skill: Z500 Antarctic
Jung and Leutbecher (2007)

48. Importance of sea ice forecasts

49. Scale dependent predictability
Figure courtesy of A. Simmons (ECMWF)

50. Oceanic response to high-resolution atmospheric forcing
Eden and Jung (2006)

51. Scale dependent predictability
Jung and Rhines (2007)

52. Synoptic eddy activity and resolution
T95-ERA40
T511-ERA40
Jung et al. (2006)

53. Synoptic eddy activity and resolution
Jung et al. (2006)

54. Predictability of sea ice anomalies
24. August 2005
23. August 2006
Message:
Sea ice shows pronounced variability
How predictable are sea ice anomalies several months on monthly and seasonal time scales?
Do these sea ice anomalies influence polar and mid-latitude weather?
Notice:
The SEARCH sea ice outlook has demonstrated skill in predicting September sea ice extent anomalies
I haven‘t asked Leif Toudal Pedersen for permission yet to show the figure
Figure courtesy of Leif Toudal Pedersen
EOS Aqua AMSR-E ice concentration

55. New TIGGE Products Raise awareness: there are low hanging fruits...
Figure courtesy of Mio Matsueda (Oxford)