SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS May 22, 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS May 22, 2012

Enrollment History Student Research -Geo-code Appraisal Research Housing Research -Single Family -Multi Family Economic Indicators -Census Data Projections -Campus and Grade

Existing Enrollment Trends 973 New Students, exceeded forecast by 500 students Total net growth previous 5 years: 899 Kindergarten growth of 8%, largest class in recent history First grade exceeds 3,000 students for first time KG-3 rd grade enrollment exceeds 9 th -12 th by over 2,500 students 12 th grade survival rate dropped below 95% for first time

Understand Race/Ethnicity Trends Track changes in poverty

Kindergarten Growth Exceeds 8% (13% in two years) Kindergarten Growth exceeds 19% 10 Shaded Schools had a total increase of 173 students. 75% of net growth from 2010/11 to 2011/12 Apartment Points

Appraisal District Data Dallas County Appraisal District Combined over 63,000 records Over 65 exemptions Accurate Residential Geo-Code Over-65 increases consistent with aging population as detailed through 2010 Census reports. Source: Dallas County Appraisal District

Park at North Vista ( Meyer Elementary) Students / Units = Yield 221 (115 Elem) / 252 =.88 Trailing Vine Apartments (Hirsch Elementary) Students / Units = Yield 56 (18 Elem) / 96 =.58 Note: In 2010 this complex had 89 students (43 Elem) a yield of.92. Note: In 2010 this complex had 235 students (127 Elem) a yield of.93.

Huffines Community 2,000 Acres 3,500 Single Family Multi-Family or TH/Condo 450 acres of lakes Mixed Use Build-out 8-10 years Developer has begun permitting SF homes. Expects 250 Homes by end of 2013

2000 Census Total Population ISD: 68,207 Total Under 18 Population: 20,122 29% of Total Population Under Census Total Population ISD: 74,409 Total Under 18 Population: 18,791 25% of Total Population Under 18

SF1 Census Block data by age Campus Enrollment by grade

Annual New home Closings When/how do we adjust household size? Change above – 2.86 – Actual 2010 Census 2.93

AOI: collection of 2010 census blocks Summarized data researched housing April 10 – April 12 Developed occupancy rate using parcel owner ship records Census household sizes April 2012 Population Compared change to local population estimate changes and ISD growth.