Climate Modeling General Circulation Models

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Modeling General Circulation Models Bruno Tremblay McGill University bruno.tremblay@mcgill.ca

Model Components Atmosphere

Model Components Atmosphere Ocean

Model Components Atmosphere Ocean Vegetation

Model Components Atmosphere Ocean Vegetation Sea ice

Model Components Atmosphere Ocean Vegetation Sea ice Surface Hydrology Ice sheets? Aerosols?

Model Grid Resolution Convergence of Meridian

Then What?

Conservation Laws Mass Energy Momentum x + y = 3 x – y = 1 x = ? y = ? 30,000 CPU unit to run these models, GCM are developed in Boulder, GFDL, Canada, France, etc x + y = 3 x – y = 1 x = ? y = ?

Diagnostic Variables Atmosphere: velocity, temperature, humidity, pressure Ocean: velocity, temperature, salinity Ice: velocity, thickness, concentration Vegetation: Hydrology:

Initial Conditions

Ocean Model Cube Sphere

Atmosphere Model

Ice Model

How do we run the models?

Climate Forcing Specified or Calculated? Solar activity: included Volcanoes: specified Aerosol from chimney: specified Ozone hole: calculated; but CFC concentration are specified Land use change: specified Contrails from airplane: not included.

Emission Scenarios

Emission Scenarios A1 – homogeneous world: Rapid economic growth Global population peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter Rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. A2 – heterogeneous world – preservation of local identities: Poor and rich still exist. continuously increasing population. B1 – same as A1: Reductions in material intensity Introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. B2 – same as A2: local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/029.htm

Global Mean Surface Temperature GFDL

Dependence on Initial Conditions http://www.upscale.utoronto.ca/GeneralInterest/Harrison/Flash/Chaos/Bunimovich/Bunimovich.html

Forced vs Natural Variability Do several simulations Take the ensemble Mean