1. Atmospheric chemistry Day 5 Ozone and air quality Air quality and climate change

2. Impact of air pollution UK Air Quality Strategy, 2007 “Air pollution is currently estimated to reduce the life expectancy of every person in the UK by an average of 7-8 months. The measures outlined in the strategy could help to reduce the impact on average life expectancy to five months by 2020, and provide a significant step forward in protecting our environment.” Defra estimate the health impact of air pollution in 2005 cost £9.1–21.4 billion pa.

3. Air Quality Standards: Ozone European Union Limit Value: Target of 120μg.m -3 (60 ppb) for an 8 hour mean, not to be exceeded more than 25 times a year averaged over3 years. To be achieved by 31 December 2010. UK Air Quality Objective: Target of 100μg.m -3 (50 ppb) for an 8 hour mean, not to be exceeded more than 10 times a year. To be achieved by 31 December 2005.

4. Timescales of ozone chemistry 1.Global chemistry. Dominated by NO x + CH 4 + sunlight. Timescales are long as are transport distances. 2.Regional chemistry. Many VOCs are emitted, e.g. over Europe. Each has its own lifetime governed by its rate constant for reaction with OH. The timescales of ozone production takes from hours to days. The transport distance for a wind speed of 5 m s -1 and a lifetime of 1 day is ~500 km. 3.Urban chemistry: high concentrations of NO from transport sources. Ozone is depressed by the reaction: NO + O 3  NO 2 + O 2

5. Ozone mixing ratios at MaceHead W. Ireland, under westerly airflows

6. Local effects – Ozone depression due to reaction with high concentrations of NO in London. Transect of ozone concentrations

8. Radiative Forcing Radiative forcing: the change in the net radiation balance at the tropopause caused by a particular external factor in the absence of any climate feedbacks. These forcing mechanisms can be caused by: –change in the atmospheric constituents such as the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) –aerosols due to anthropogenic activity, – changes in other components of the Earth/atmosphere system such as changes in the surface albedo (the fraction of incoming radiation that is reflected). Albedo changes are caused, e.g., by changesin vegetation (e.g. burn scars or agriculture).

9. Mechanisms of the radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and of the direct radiative forcings due to aerosols

10. Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 (relative to 1750) for anthropogenic GHGs and other important agents and mechanisms

11. Carbon dioxide and methane mixing ratios versus time (NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/insitu.html)

12. Other GHGs N 2 O mixing ratios show an increase from a pre- industrial value of around 270 ppb (Prather et al., 2001) to 318 – 319 ppb in early 2004 CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-13, HCFC-22, and CCl 4 concentrations increased from a pre-industrial value of zero to 268 ppt, 533 ppt, 4 ppt, 132 ppt, and 102 ppt respectively (1998 concentrations) - leads to radiative forcings of 0.07 W m -2, 0.17 W m -2, 0.03 W m -2, 0.03 W m -2 and 0.01 W m -2 Ozone: approximate doubling of concentrations between the pre-industrial and present day.

13. Climate System

14. Schematic description of an ocean atmosphere general circulation model

15. Evolution of models

16. Carbon cycle

17. Processes in an atmospheric chemistry model

18. Sulfur cycle

19. Sulfur emissions

20. Sulfur emissions 1860 - 1990

21. UK Air quality – comparison of trends in pollutants Relative annual mean concentration (monthly intervals): selection of monitoring sites in London. AQEG PM report

22. Global NO x and CH 4 emissions scenarios NO x CH 4 CLE - current legislation SRES – IPCC analyses MFR – maximum feasible reduction

23. SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios The A1 storyline is for a future world with very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies and with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. Within this family are three sub-scenarios with different technological emphasis: A1FI – A1, fossil fuel intensive A1T – A1, with non-fossil energy source emphasis A1B – A1, with a balance across energy sources. The A2 storyline is a more pessimistic scenario, describing a very heterogeneous world based on self-reliance, regional differences in economic and technological development and continuous increase in global population. The B1 storyline describes a convergent world like A1, with global population peaking in mid-century, but with rapid changes in economic structures, introduction of clean and resource- efficient technologies, emphasis on global solutions to social and environmental sustainability. The B2 storyline describes a world with emphasis on local solutions to social and environmental sustainability, less rapid and more diverse than in B1 and A1, with continuously increasing global population, but at a lower rate than A2.

24. Royal Society Report on ozone over next 100 years Level of automobile emission limits in Asian countries, compared with the EuropeanUnion. Source: Clean Air Initiative for Asian cities

25. Impact of improved technologies in Asian countries on assessment of NOx emissions

27. New estimates of CO emissions

28. New estimates of CH 4 emissions

29. Predicted lobal temperature rise for different scenarios

30. Surface O 3 (ppbv) 1990s

31. BAU Change in surface O 3, CLE 2020s-1990s No climate change >+10 ppbv India +2 to 4 ppbv over N. Atlantic/Pacific A large fraction is due to ship NO x CLE

32. ΔO 3 from climate change Warmer temperatures &higher humidities increase O 3 destruction over the oceans But also a role from increases in isoprene emissions from vegetation &changes in lightning NO x 2020s CLEcc- 2020s CLE O 3 + h O 1 D + O 2 O 1 D + H 2 O  2OH O 1 D + N 2, O 2  O 3 P OH+RH(+O 2 )  RO 2 + H 2 O RO 2 + NO  RO + NO 2 NO 2 + h (+O 2 )  NO+O 3

33. Atmospheric oxidation of methane OH CH 3 O 2 HO 2 CH 4 H2OH2O NONO 2 O3O3 HO 2 Termination O3O3 light HO2 Termination NO NO 2 O3O3 Termination CH 4 removed mainly by reaction with OH Yield of OH and loss of O 3 depend on humidity Low NOx route Ozone destruction (background atmos) High NOx route Ozone formation Polluted atmos O 1 D +H 2 O  2OH O 1 D +N 2,O 2  O 3 P  O 3

34. PAN – peroxy acetyl nitrate PAN is a reservoir compound for nitrogen oxides and provides a mechanism for their transport, especially in the upper troposphere. It provides a means of carrying nitrogen oxides from polluted to less polluted regions. It is a major player in the intercontinental transport of pollutants PAN is formed from reactions of the acetyl peroxy radical and NO2: e.g. CH3CHO + OH (+O2)  CH3COO2 + H2O CH3COO2 + NO2 CH3COO2NO2 (PAN)

35. Impact of climate change on air quality - ozone

36. Heat wave in Europe, August 2003 Monitoring stations in Europe reporting high band concentrations of ozone >15 000 ‘excess deaths’ in France; 2000 in UK, ~30% from air pollution. Temperatures exceeded 35 0 C in SE England. What about Hungary? How frequent will such summers be in the future?

37. Budapest, 1 – 31 August 2003

38. NO 2 in Budapest and Hungary in 2005

39. Diurnal variation

40. Future summer temperatures Using a climate model simulation with greenhouse gas emissions that follow an IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario, Hadley Centre predict that more than half of all European summers are likely to be warmer than that of 2003 by the 2040s, and by the 2060s a 2003-type summer would be unusually cool Stott et al. Nature, December 2004 2003: hottest on record (1860) Probably hottest since 1500. 15 000 excess deaths in Europe

41. Emission of biomass smoke from Portugal in August 2003: effects on local albedo