1. Presented By Ashley Bell Dr. Thomas Pfaff Spring 2010 Whalen Symposium

2. Maple Syrup Overview Sugar maple Found throughout the local region NY produces 362,000 gallons per year 40 liters of sap per 1 liter syrup Sap flows when nights are below 30˚F and days are above 36˚F Image Source: http://www.cnr.vt.edu/dendro/dendrology/fall/biglist_frame.cfm

3. Climate Change Scenarios Image source: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/sres/ A1 Rapid economic growth Global population increases until midcentury New and more efficient technology Emissions increase until 2080 A2 Heterogeneous world Continuously increasing population Self reliance and preservation of local identities Economic development regionally Slow technology change Highest emissions in 2100 B1 Sustainable development Emphasis on global equality Convergent world Population peaks midcentury Introduction of clean energies Resource efficient technology B2 Regional sustainability Emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability Continuously increasing population (lower than A2) Diverse technology change (less rapid than B1)

4. Current vs. Simulation Emissions Current CO 2 Levels (2010) 826.6 GtC Project CO 2 Levels (2100) 1855.3 GtC

5. Question How will climate change effect the maple syrup industry in Ithaca?

6. Methods Analyze observed temperature data from NCAR Check for optimal start date and sap flow days Optimal start date – The first day that yields the most sap flow days for that season (Dec-May) Sap flow day – A day the falls below 30˚F at night and rises above 36˚F during the day Repeat for simulated data – “current” and “future” Based on the A2 scenario (previous shown CO 2 levels)

7. Extreme Value Distribution Maximum and minimum data – likely to be skewed Similar to normal – not everything is normal! Density equation – Normal Density equation – Extreme Value Three parameters

8. What is the probability of having a sap flow day? Preliminary data suggests highest probability throughout March

9. How will the start date change? Probability Start Date Projected Density Current Density Current Median: 85 ~ Feb 23 Future Median: 77 ~ Feb 15 In the future we expect to need to start 8 days earlier

10. What happens to the number of sap flow days? Probability Number of Sap flow days No change notably due to climate change (time?) Mean: 22.9 days Standard Deviation: 0.9 days Current Density

11. What if we start 10 days late? Probability Number of Sap flow days Mean (ontime): 22.9 days Mean (late): 20.1 days Loss -12.2% Loss in sap flow days expected to not change in the future!

12. …20 days late? Probability Number of Sap flow days Current Density Projected Density Mean (ontime): 22.9 days Mean (10 late): 20.1 days Mean (20 late): 16.3 days Loss- 28.8% Mean future (20 late): 16.1 days Loss – 29.7% Minimal change in sap flow days from current model

13. Conclusions In the future we expect, Earlier start date – 8 days earlier Maximum number of sap flow days for a season (on time) not to change Loss of of sap flow days 10 late – remain the same as now in future (Loss of 12.2%) 20 late – minimal differences between now and future (Loss of 28.8%)

14. Questions?