Naval Research Laboratory ONR MURI Integration and Visualization of Multi-Source Information Project Ted Tsui Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA

Navy View Needs from the operational forecaster’s perspective (METOC Human System Interaction Project) Goal of the forecaster: to provide accurate, precise and needed METOC forecast information to the Naval tactical users. METOC Infrastructure (CNMOC Support)

Background METOC Infrastructure (CNMOC Support) Production Centers Products only Regional Centers, Facilities Regional forecast Officer, Senior Chief, Civilians METOC Office onboard ships Ship forecast, specific Naval operations support AG1 Forecast by whatever the information they can get

METOC Information Navy System, Web (SIPRNET, Internet) Observations: for Current Conditions Satellite Images, Satellite observations, Station Observations, Aircraft reports, Numerical Model Product: for Analysis and forecast Large-scale model (in the order of 10 good models) Mesoscale model (in the order of less than 10 good models)

METOC Human System Interaction Project Model Performance Characteristics Regional Center has the experience and resources to compare the model outputs. (subjective and based on experience) Shipboard Forecaster seems to perform the duty alone. Very little help from the technician. Shipboard forecasters read the synoptic reasoning messages (in text format). No forecast discussion with centers.

Temperature Statistics (Europe) Pressure (mb) T (C) T (C)

Global Model Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N Global Model Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N. Hemisphere 500 mb Heights Anomaly Correlation

Characteristics of Mesoscale Forecast Mesoscale Model Capability Resolving small-scale features Dependent on large-scale model output to define the general patterns Inexperienced forecaster tends not to verify the input to the mesoscale model

Wind Speed Statistics

Verification Sampling Consideration 5 m/s 81 km grid location > 5 m/s 9 km grid location Observation Mountain x y Barrier Jet

COAMPS 12-hr. Forecast valid 1200 UTC 3 Oct. 1999 WIND 81 km WIND 12 km m/s

Example Forecast Obs Obs Forecast Low Resolution Obs Obs Forecast High Resolution

Number of 20 kt+ Wind Events NOV-DEC 2000 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 FNMOC COAMPS 27 km E_PAC 42 hr FCST SSM/I winds COAMPS winds # OBS # FCSTS Observed and simulated climatology can be derived for each event. COAMPS predicted more 20 kt wind events than observed. Forecast statistics can be further categorized. Each valid SSM/I observation can be compared with the forecast Specific events can be defined, providing more precise information.

Phase Error System Movement Forecast Forecast Obs Obs t = t0 Score: miss t = t0+1 Score: miss

COAMPS Low Clouds 11 AUG 01 00Z Tau = 2 hrs 11 AUG 01 00Z Tau = 4 hrs

COAMPS 12hr forecast Ceiling and Satellite Images Valid at 7/2/99 00Z

Potential Display Forecaster with Limited Training Intuitive Simple Message Easy Access

Potential Display

Navy View Navy Forecaster Needs Error characteristics or confidence level associated with daily model predictions Visualize the uncertainty area including input errors One Click!!

ECMWF Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N ECMWF Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N. Hemisphere 500 mb Heights Anomaly Correlation

FNMOC Vortex Tracking Program North Atlantic July 2000

Meteograms Weather Forecast Aviation Forecast

1 1

Water vapor-tracked winds using GMS-5 imagery: 1 1

Potential Display