2012 ITE Annual Conference Allen Nie, PhD, PE, HMM June , Santa Barbara, CA SR 46 Improvement PSR/PDS Study

Presentation Outline Background Improvement Alternatives Traffic Modeling Traffic Operations Analysis Project Status Lessons Learned

Project Location – Paso Robles Cambria Wasco

SR 46 E in Paso Robles

Past Studies SR 46 E Comprehensive Traffic Survey, 2005 Golden Hill Retail Center TIA, 2007 State Route 46 E Parallel Routes Study, 2008 SR 46 E Comprehensive Corridor Study, 2009 Paso Robles General Plan Update, 2011

Existing Intersection & Mainline LOS

2025 Intersection & Mainline LOS

Delays Source: Caltrans SR 46 E CCS

Paso Robles Land Use

Traffic Issues – Local Perspective S

Improvements along SR 46 LocationImprovementStatus US 101/SR 46 SB Ramps Add WBL and EBT lanesIn construction, to be completed in 2014 US 101 / SR 46 NB Ramps Add WBT lanesTo be completed by CT in the future SR 46 / Golden Hill RdRestriping, add left turn lanes on all approaches; widen northbound approach to Completed SR 46 E / Airport RdWiden SR 46 to 4 lanes from Airport Rd to Shandon Completed SR 46 / Union RdTBD by this studyPSR

The PSR Project Team

Alignment Alternatives ALT 1 –Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build) ALT 2 – Signalization ALT 3 – Roundabout (West) ALT 4 – Roundabout (East) ALT 5 – Overcrossing ALT 6 – Interchange

ALT 4 – Roundabout (East)

ALT 6 – Interchange

Caltrans Responsibility Maintain / Increase Hwy 46 throughput Reduce travel delay Traffic controls (signal) Congestion (queue spillovers, weaving issues, etc) Improve travel time reliability Multimodal and safety Vision - grade separation, limited # of access points

Citys Expectation Easy access to Highway 46 and US 101 Better & reliable connectivity Support multimodal transportation (bike & Ped) Fit into the Citys Circulation Master Plan Cost concerns Phased development

Citys Circulation Master Plan

Work Process Kickoff Meeting Traffic Modeling Operational Analysis Alternative Assessment Project Management and QA/QC Project Management and QA/QC Traffic Data Field Survey Alternative Development

City of Paso Robles Traffic Model City model based on the SLOCOG county model Three-step highway model Feedback loop Detailed GIS roadway network Horizon years modeled

Traffic Model Enhancement Post- processing

Model Enhancement Study Area City Area The rest

Day of Week Fluctuation Highway 46 Vs. Local Arterial

Traffic Model Calibration ComparisonCoefficient (slope)R^2Intercept Before Calibration AM Peak PM Peak After Calibration AM Peak PM Peak Comparison% (GEH <5) Before Calibration AM Peak50% PM Peak53% After Calibration AM Peak100% PM Peak100% Before Model CalibrationAfter Model Calibration

GEH Statistics (Before) (After) Traffic Simulation Criteria: 85% (GEH < 5)

Seasonal Fluctuation

Ramifications of Traffic Fluctuation Data Collection Use of old counts – consistency issue Model Calibration which month? Previous studies failed to consider this Traffic operations Worst or average Design For the worst?

Traffic Operations Analysis Intersections Signalized Stop-controlled Roundabout Hwy 46 multilane highway Hwy 46 Weaving Simulation (optional)

Finalized Study Scenarios & Elements

Preliminary Results: 2016 No Build

Performance Comparison To be updated!

Project Status Data Collection - done Alignment Alternative - 90% Model Development & Calibration - Approved Traffic Forecast – 85% Traffic Operations Analysis – 25% Overall project - Ahead of schedule

Challenges & Lessons Learned Data Collection Seasonal & day of week fluctuation Timing / consistency Always validate your data Scenarios Management Communication Work closely with all stokeholds Consensus Building Use your traffic model

Thank you! Questions & Answers

Hatch Mott MacDonald Allen Nie, PhD, PE Tel: Richard Davis, VP Tel: Hacienda Dr., Suite 300 Pleasanton, CA Fax:

Stop right here

City Zoning

Project Development Process Caltrans

Project Study Report Initial document of the project Include Scoping of the physical work Budget and schedule to deliver the project Define the needs and purpose Timeframe 6 months to 12 months

Draft Project Report A decision making document Document the need for a project Summarize Key points from the Draft Env. Doc The studies of the scope, cost Overall impact of alternatives Help make informal decision whether to proceed to the public hearing phase of the project

ALT 1 – Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build)

ALT 2 – Signalization

ALT 3 – Roundabout West

ALT 5 – Overcrossing

Future Year O-D Calculation The Difference Method

Half Clover Leaf Interchange

Roundabout Alternative

Background

The Consideration of Recession People are talking about it Not enough data to fully measure the impact on traffic level in the project study area Would be a decision from the City and Caltrans To consider it at all? Which growth pattern to choose?

The Impact of Recession Legend Line 1: w/o recession Lines 2 - 5: w/ recession

Traffic Modeling Task Forecast future year traffic 2016, 2020, 2025, 2035 Forecast traffic under different alignment alternatives Traffic assignment Explore traffic circulation pattern to support traffic operations analysis E.g. weaving analysis Support alternative development

Model Validation Supply side Link attributes Network coding Turn penalties Demand side Land use consolidation (type, quantity) Zone disaggregation Trip rates review

Additional Model Improvement & Testing Upgrade to TransCAD 5.0 Additional tools in GISDK for OD operations Sensitivity testing in the project area Through trip assessment (select link analysis) Trip patterns (select link / zone analysis)