Bettina Wistrom OECD Statistics Directorate ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES OECD OCDE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Monitoring Progress on Implementation of the Manual and Assessing Data Quality. Bettina Wistrom OECD Statistics Directorate STATISTICS DIRECTORATE – INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS 1 1

Introduction Pressing need from trade analysts and negotiators for more relevant, detailed data Are we progressing ? How to monitor progress? Suggested approach: Look at core recommendations in Manual Quality and comparability : 1)OECD quality framework, 2)multilateral and bilateral mirror data, 3)Methodological Soundness Questionnaire.

New Core Recommendations Collect Balance of Payments (BOP) trade in services data i) Using Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification (EBOPS) ii) By partner country Collect Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) statistics for basic variables- sales, value added, employment, exports and imports i) By activity (ICFA) N.B. Concept of modes of supply is fundamental but needs more statistical development

Balance of Payments Services BOP trade in services data are relatively well established following IMF’s 5th Manual Significant progressive improvements in detail and comparability since mid-nineties Data collection by IMF/OECD/Eurostat currently being adapted to EBOPS classification Partner country data published by Eurostat and (since 2002) by OECD 2003 OECD partner country data cover 27 countries and 75% of world exports

Reporting of exports of ‘new’ BPM5 major services components by IMF countries

Reporting of selected BPM5 supplementary service items

Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) Statistics FATS statistics are relatively underdeveloped compared with BOP Data collection expanding at Eurostat, OECD and UNCTAD OECD FATS statistics database covers 5 basic variables (sales, value added, employment, exports and imports) Inward and outward FATS By activity (not ICFA) By partner First OECD publication of FATS statistics 2002, based on 1998 and 1999 surveys covers 20 countries in varying detail. 2003 survey to be published end 2004 expected to provide more information on a larger number of countries.

Current Situation of OECD Member Countries’ Development of EBOPS and FATS (May 2003) Country Number of EBOPS components reported FATS inward FATS outward 1 Australia 48 No (but planned 2004 ) No (but planned end 2003 2 Austria 22 Yes 3 Belgium - Luxembourg 62 No 4 Canada 45 5 Czech Republic 75 6 Denmark 7 Finland 52 8 France 47 9 Germany 58 10 Greece 55 11 Hungary 20 12 Iceland 26 13 Ireland 41 14 Italy 15 Japan 25 16 Korea 17 Mexico 30 18 Netherlands 44 19 New Zealand 29 Norway 56 21 Poland Portugal 68 23 Slovak Republic 31 24 Spain 53 Sweden Switzerland 27 Turkey 28 United Kingdom 46 United States

Assessing Data Quality Given difficulty of measurement – how to assess data quality? OECD quality framework Partner country mirror data – in principle there should be something very close to symmetry (note there are a few inherent conceptual asymmetries) Provide a measure of comparability/monitored over time Bilateral approach Multilateral approach Methodological Soundness Questionnaire (Launched by Eurostat –OECD 2003) will look at country approaches

OECD quality framework Relevance of data could be improved by a presentation by modes. Accuracy and comparability monitored by using mirror statistics and asymmetry coefficients. Timeliness closely linked to coherence in case of trade-in-services data. UNSD ITS database project could help on that. Interpretability improved with metadata linked to data. Room for improvement for accessibility.

Some selected examples of bilateral BOP services asymmetries

Average of absolute values of calculated bilateral asymmetry coefficients. Total services 0.22 Transportation 0.28 Travel 0.42 Other commercial services Government services 0.57

Some selected examples of multilateral BOP services asymmetries

  Average of absolute values of calculated Multilateral asymmetry coefficients. Total services 0.165 Transportation 0.15 Travel 0.215 Other commercial services 0.375 Government services 0.55

Mirror data and asymmetry coefficients to identify irregularities Monitor asymmetry indicators over time: -Highest/lowest discrepancies between reported flows and mirror data -Asymmetry coefficient negative/positive (i.e. relative under/overestimation of reported flows compared to mirror data.)

Methodological Soundness Questionnaire OECD-Eurostat joint initiative sent out in June 2003 30 countries filled the questionnaire. Results will be discussed with the experts first before being made more widely available. Help to compare national practices and foster good practice.

Conclusions and Questions. On the criteria outlined above significant progress is being made Much progress (but not all) concentrated so far in OECD countries BOP Services, FATS and Partner Country Data Is the approach outlined on data quality appropriate ? Do we need to monitor any other aspect of country reporting ? Any other comments ?