Lifelong Learning Workshop Sponsored by the World Bank and the Slovak Governance Institute 9 December 2003, Bratislava Lifelong Learning – What Lessons from Experience in the OECD? Gregory Wurzburg Education Directorate OECD Paris gregory.wurzburg@oecd.org

Main points Why does lifelong learning matter? How are other countries doing with respect to implementation of lifelong learning ? A strategy for leap-frogging

Added perspective of international comparisons Evaluating progress vs.adequacy A different view of trade-offs Less pain, more gain: ideas for improving the learning curve for public policy making

Why does lifelong learning matter? Because human capital matters for the economic and social fate of individual, enterprises, and countries Because skill requirements in everyday life are changing more quickly Because ageing societies depend more on older workers as a source of new skills and know-how Let’s start with consequences for growth

Change in growth 1970s-80s Change in growth 1980s-90s Observed change in output per capita (per cent) Investment share Human capital Population growth Variability of inflation "Size" of government Trade exposure Notes: This shows the estimated effect of changes in the selected explanatory variables to changes in output per capital growth rates. Source: Bassanini et al, 2001. -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 West Germany 0.08 -0.19 United States 0.90 0.01 United Kingdom 0.59 -0.58 Switzerland -0.19 -0.64 Sweden -0.23 0.46 Spain 0.10 -0.15 Portugal 0.87 0.61 Norway -1.54 -0.26 New Zealand 0.41 0.97 Netherlands 0.33 Japan -0.58 -0.06 Italy -0.98 1.21 Ireland 0.59 Greece -1.34 0.04 France -0.57 -0.90 Finland -0.61 0.34 Denmark -0.06 -0.60 Canada 0.18 0.37 Belgium -0.35 -0.23 Austria -0.52 0.80 Australia Estimated effect of changes in explanatory variables on changes in output per capita growth rates over the 1980s – 1990s (figures for 1970s – 1980s, and for 1980s – 1990s) Source: Bassanini, A. and Stefano Scarpetta (2001), “The driving forces of economic growth: panel data evidence for the OECD countries”, in OECD Economic Studies, Outlook No. 68 – December, No. 33, 2001/2.

Unemployment by education level 25-64 year olds data for 2001 Source: OECD – EAG 2003

Relative Earnings by Education Upper secondary = 100 OECD country average Data for 2001 Source: OECD EAG 2003

There’s a political mandate for it OECD Education Ministers established a mandate in 1996 First endorsed by finance ministers, labour ministers in 1997 OECD Education Ministers met in 2001 to review progress and advance the agenda

How well are countries implementing lifelong learning? OECD Secretariat took stock of recent experience Education Policy Analysis 2001 Difficult because LLL is elastic concept Focused on preparation of individuals for learning With some attention to working-age adults

Participation in pre-primary education for children aged 3, 1998 net rate (%) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 France Belgium (Fl.) Italy Iceland New Zealand Spain Denmark Hungary Norway Germany Sweden Japan Portugal United Kingdom Czech Republic United States Austria Finland Australia Poland Mexico Korea Switzerland Ireland Turkey Unweighted average Source: OECD, Education at a glance 2000, Paris. G.Wurzburg, OECD - .

Slovakia - 94 % of age 25-34; 66% age 55-64 (2001) Progress towards completing upper secondary 1998 % upper secondary education 100 90 Turkey Mexico Portugal Iceland Spain Italy Poland United Kingdom Australia Greece Ireland Netherlands Belgium Hungary France New Zealand Austria Finland Canada Denmark Sweden United States Switzerland Norway Czech Republic Korea 25-29 year-olds Unweighted average for 25-29 year-olds 80 50-54 year-olds Unweighted average for 50-54 year-olds 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: OECD Labour Force Survey Database 2000. G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Literacy levels and underachievement rates of persons aged 16-25 completing upper secondary education, 1994-1998 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 Finland Denmark Sweden Netherlands Germany Czech Republic Norway Canada Belgium (Fl.) Switzerland Australia Portugal United Kingdom New Zealand Ireland Hungary United States Poland Mean literacy score on document scale Mean literacy score 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Underachievement rate Source: OECD and Statistics Canada, International Adult Literacy Survey, 2000. G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Slovakia - 11% age 25-34; 9 % age 55-64 (2001) Progress towards increasing tertiary qualifications, 1998 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 % Source: OECD Labour Force Survey Database 2000. Turkey Portugal Italy Czech Republic Poland Austria Hungary Mexico Greece United Kingdom France Netherlands Ireland Switzerland Australia New Zealand Denmark Spain Norway Iceland Sweden Belgium Korea Finland United States Canada 30-34 year-olds Unweighted average for 30-34 year-olds 50-54 year-olds Unweighted average for 50-54 year-olds G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Adult share of total enrolments in formal education, by level of education, 1998 5 10 15 20 25 Source: OECD Education Database. % of enrollees aged 35 and over Tertiary Secondary Australia United Kingdom Sweden New Zealand Belgium (Fl. Com.) Finland United States Canada Norway Iceland Denmark Netherlands Portugal Austria Spain Germany Korea Turkey Italy Switzerland Mexico Japan All levels G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Adult participation in continuing education and training, 1994-98 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 10 20 30 40 60 Participation rate Hours/participant Adult participation in continuing education and training, 1994-98 Source: OECD and Statistics Canada, Literacy in the Information Age, 2000, Paris. NOR HUN FIN DEN CZE UKM NZL BEL(Fl) AUS USA CHE POL NLD IRL CAN G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Learning by older adults after formal education, 1994-98 Percent of 46-65 year-olds with only upper secondary performing at literacy level 3 or above (document scale) Poland Hungary Portugal Switzerland Australia United States Denmark Germany Ireland Belgium (Fl.) Canada Norway Finland Netherlands Czech Republic New Zealand Sweden United Kingdom 5 10 15 20 25 % Source: OECD and Statistics Canada, International Adult Literacy Survey. G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Financing and cost indicators showed… For period covered by EPA 2001 analysis Unit cost declining in tertiary education Private share in finance increasing faster than public share Public share shifting from institutions, towards learners For period 1995 to 2000 total outlays for tertiary declined in 13 of 22 countries

Secretariat calculations using published data 1 2 3 4 5 Composite score Composite measure of coverage and quality of lifelong learning Poland Hungary Portugal Ireland Switzerland Australia United States United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Canada Czech Republic New Zealand Denmark Norway Finland Sweden Secretariat calculations using published data G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Secretariat calculations using published data Lifelong learning value for money Public expenditure as a % of GDP 8 7 SWE POL HUN POR IRE CHE AUS USA UKM DEU NLD CAN CZE NZL DEN NOR FIN 6 y = 0,4078x + 4,147 R 2 = 0,2182 5 4 3 2 1 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 Composite index on LLL Secretariat calculations using published data Source: OECD Education Database. G.Wurzburg, OECD -

Comparative analysis emphasised the formal part of the LLL spectrum Most easily observed Comparable data readily available Formal sector has powerful influence over down-stream learning But as goes the formal sector, so goes LLL

How best to foster a systemic approach to lifelong learning? That depends on… what features define lifelong learning how they relate to pre-existing policy and institutional arrangements

What are the key features (and are they compatible with the formal system)? (Sound foundation – initial education) Focus on individual learner With good knowledge of learning opportunities -functional learning markets Able to connect learning that occurs in different ways in different places With the financial means to exercise choice

National authorities are in the best position to evaluate Whether these features are compatible with initial education and training How best to enable lifelong learning But the criteria for judging effectiveness will be to a large extent externally imposed: where you stand internationally A word about tertiary education

Thank you for your attention!