DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS The Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’

Introduction Hypothesis: ‘Hard Brexit’ - No withdrawal agreement - No transition - No framework for future relations Unlikely but not impossible - Northern Irish question

Structure Institutional implications Budgetary implications Policy implications Conclusions

1) Institutional implications EU institutions: ‘Hard Brexit’ = Brexit European Council Council Commission Parliament Court of Justice Central Bank Immediate effect Until end of mandate No effect

2) Budgetary implications EU budget: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major challenge for budget 2019 & 2020 But from a legal viewpoint: UK has already accepted obligation to pay -> good faith under international law Difficulties due to lack of mandatory adjudication forum and enforcement

3) Policy implications EU policy: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major changes particularly in fields: a) Commerce & trade No more free movement + WTO b) Security & Justice No more AFSJ cooperation + CoE Particular challenges for Ireland

Conclusion ‘Hard Brexit’ = negative scenario Implications: limited for EU institutions but major for EU budget and policies Possible contingency measures: GATT Art. XXIV(3) -> customs Intergov’t cooperation -> security But risks and legal limitations

Presentation by Federico FABBRINI Full Professor of EU Law & Director, Brexit Institute – Dublin City University Policy Department Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs Responsible Administrator: Eeva ERIKSSON poldep-citizens@europarl.europa.eu