1. 51 DAYS
TO GO
“This is no time for ease and comfort. It is a time to dare and endure”
Winston Churchill

2. Is there another alternative?
51 days to go – What are the alternatives?
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Revoke Article 50
Agree a “Divorce Deal”
Leave without a Deal
Article Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. ... That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
Is there another alternative?

3. Alternative 1 – Revoke Article 50
On 10 December 2018, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke its withdrawal notification made under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. This means that the UK can decide to remain in the EU without requiring the consent of the other member states.
The ECJ also confirmed that, should the UK remain owing to such a revocation, it would be ‘under terms that are unchanged’ (paras 74, 75). This means that the UK could remain in the EU without making any concessions for doing so.
There appears to be no will to do so on either side of the political divide, but the option is legally available up until 11pm UK time on 29th March 2019.

4. Alternative 2 – The Divorce Deal
A deal does require agreement by both parties

5. Alternative 2 – Possible deals?
The PM’s Deal
Malthouse Art. 24 WTO
Other Alternatives
Rejected by the House of Commons
Includes the “Back Stop” – rejected by all sides
EU have stated they will not re-open negotiations.
Keeps us firmly in the EU orbit (contributing financially, subject to free movement, unable to strike trade deals and in regulatory alignment).
Component A
Transition extended to December 2021
Customs checks at the Irish Border
Still pay £39bn
Component B
Seek a standstill trade arrangement (does not rule out NO DEAL)
Article 24 WTO
No future FTA has yet been negotiated of agreed
Requires EU agreement
A Customs Union Agreement
Like Turkey Customs Declarations will be mandatory
Extending Article 50
For how long – will need to participate in the EU elections.
Second Referendum
Minimum of 6 months to organise legally
Taking NO DEAL off the table
Not possible in the absence of a deal
etc. etc. ? ?

6. Alternative 3 – Leave without a Deal
The default option under both European Union and United Kingdom Law – in the event that a divorce deal is not agreed - is that the UK exits the EU under WTO Rules.
Any amendment or extension would require the agreement of all 27 Remaining EU Member States.
Leaving without a deal, therefore, remains a very real possibility …
Transitional Simplified Procedures
Postponed Import VAT accounting.
Pre-lodged (2 hours before loading) Simplified Frontier Declaration.
Update into CHIEF within 24 hours of arrival.
Checks – if required performed away from the border
Subsequent supplementary statistical and fiscal declaration…