Rising powers and the emerging global order Alexandra Ciria’k April 2, 2018

Contents: Introduction The post-cold war order The US order under challenge Three questions about emerging powers Conclusion

Introduction The West won the cold war Europe: enlargement of EU Rising powers and the emerging global order Introduction The West won the cold war Europe: enlargement of EU US: sole superpower  World: unipolarity Three pillars of the unipolar world Unrivalled US power Western-dominated institutions Dense network of alliances

BUT! Would this US predominance last??? Rising powers and the emerging global order BUT! Would this US predominance last???

The post-cold war order Rising powers and the emerging global order The post-cold war order Three liberal stories Institutions & coopartive logic of institutions Gradual but progressive diffusion of liberal values Importance and utility of soft power & self-restraint

The post-cold war order (2) Rising powers and the emerging global order The post-cold war order (2) Changes in the nature and dynamics of power: During the 1990s the US became the centre of a unipolar world Soviet Union and its allies no longer posed a challenge “…soft power would outstrip hard coercive power…” (Nye, 2005)

The post-cold war order (3) Rising powers and the emerging global order The post-cold war order (3) The US had the right and power to decide what the ‘liberal global order’ was radical rejectionists It was unlikely that any emerging power could challenge US power and primacy (Wohlforth, 1999) US military power is a class of its own US accounts for 45% of worlds total military spending Lead in new military technologies Neo-liberalism spread across the developing world Transformation of global capitalism (Robinson 2007)

The post-cold war order (4) Rising powers and the emerging global order The post-cold war order (4) Attention shifts to Global South (Third World) after the cold war: Social movements The US-led order won’t be challenged by large developing countries but radical rejectionist states (WTO ministerial meeting, 1999)

The US order under challenge Rising powers and the emerging global order The US order under challenge Washington’s rhetoric of human rights vs. its willingness to violate them in defense of its national security Undermined Western’s moral superiority

The US order under challenge Rising powers and the emerging global order The US order under challenge Visible signs of changes in world order Increasing diplomatic activity in large developing countries G20 coalition (Cancun,2003) IBSA: India, Brazil and South Africa Dialogue Forum BASICs: Brazil, India, South Africa and China BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China

The US order under challenge (2) Rising powers and the emerging global order The US order under challenge (2) The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India & China) significant development: Make up the 4 largest economies outside OECD structural change in global economics BRICs size and share in the world economy will rise more and more (O’Neill, 2001)

The US order under challenge (3) Rising powers and the emerging global order The US order under challenge (3) 2007-9 financial crisis: Promoted changes in the balance of global economic power Broke out in the core western countries  undermining their technical and moral authority Emerging economics (e.g.: BRICs) were less effected

Three questions about emerging powers (1) Rising powers and the emerging global order Three questions about emerging powers (1) Where is power shifting to? To major emerging states 2. General diffusion of power (China’s rise, Arab Spring) Rise of the rest (Khanna, 2009) This makes achieving effective power and influence harder for everyone

Three questions about emerging powers (2) Rising powers and the emerging global order Three questions about emerging powers (2) What is power? One of the most complex question to answer 2. Three different levels of power Relational power Institutional power Structural power Power & influence motives & values

Three questions about emerging powers (3) Rising powers and the emerging global order Three questions about emerging powers (3) Power for what? The most important question. Rising economies naturally challenge the status quo 3. And currenct powers might try to block them Conflict between China and US will be hard to avoid (Mearsheimer, 2013)

Three questions about emerging powers (4) Rising powers and the emerging global order Three questions about emerging powers (4) Rising powers matter because they disturb the currenct balance of power Possessing material capabilities and coercive power is what makes a state a great power Beyond material power: search for status and prestige “Prestige is the currency of international politics”

Three questions about emerging powers (5) Rising powers and the emerging global order Three questions about emerging powers (5) Post-Westphalian elements: Structural changes in foreign policy & governance challenges in both individual states and the international society The question of legitimacy: raw power alone cannot secure authority and legitimacy

Rising states and the globalization of world politics Rising powers and the emerging global order Rising states and the globalization of world politics Two ways to global order: Regionally based systems uniting based on a certain set of terms The global dominance of a former regional system The Third World has come to an end (Zoellick, 2010): Fast-evolving multi-polar world

Questions: Questions: Rising powers and the emerging global order Questions: Questions: What was the world order like after the cold war? What does BRICs stand for? Which part of the world was most effected by the 2007-9 economic crisis? What are the 3 questions we have to ask about emerging powers? Do today’s emerging powers mean the end of the Third World?

Thank you for your attention! Rising powers and the emerging global order Thank you for your attention!