1. Historical Evolution of International System/Society II
The Emerging Global Order Post-Cold War
Brian Newar – 4/2/18

2. From the End of the Cold War to a New Global Era? (Michael Cox)
The USA unipolar movement
After the Soviet Union
The rise and decline of Europe
Asian century speculation
From 9/11 to Arab Spring and Obama
Rising Powers and the Emerging Global Order (Hurrel)
The post Cold War order
US order challenged
Emerging powers face three questions
Rising states and the globalization of world politics
Articles Discussed

3. From the End of the Cold War to a New Global Era? Setting the Stage
Emergence of Superpowers in the USA and USSR
top global powers
The Third World became battle grounds (Korea, Vietnam, etc.)
Gaddis- clear separation made the Cold War “a long peace”
Was Mikhail Gorbachev largely responsible for the end?

4. The USA Unipolar Movement
USSR gone and China still far from recovery
“…hegemony is not omnipotence.” –Layne
Hegemony – dominance of one country over others
USA was powerful and trustworthy
Some international failures (Somalia, Rwanda), but many victories (Serbs) through the 1990’s
By 2000, USA was ‘hyperpower’ more than ‘superpower’

5. What about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

6. After the Soviet Union
From centralized employment to market competitiveness
Centralized employment – the government gave everyone a job
Market competitiveness – markets determine people’s usefulness, job, and pay
No plan nor means of action, but had super-rich actors
Rise of Putin; wanted ‘acquiescence’ from Russian super-rich
Failure to acquiesce? imprisonment or exile
Russia was ‘an outside player that is neither eternal foe or automatic friend’ –Trenin

7. Rise and Decline of Europe
Three benefits of Cold War end:
Unification, self-determination, no possible large-scale war
Self determination – country determines its own government
United European States or separate and sovereign?
European Securities and Defense Policy (1998) and European Security Strategy (2003): Europe engages more seriously with international affairs
Most nations maintain weak military; major soft power
Functioning EU > alternative arrangement

8. A New Asian Century?
Asia lacked stability and institutional wealth; ASEAN is the biggest collective voice
Major USA support in several countries led to economic explosion and military peace
China now is seeing fast rise in power; neighboring countries are calling on USA for support (South Korea, Japan)
“The world has a long way to go before we can talk of a post-Western world.” -Cox

10. A New Global South Third World nation political cycle
1. destitute people prop up enthusiastic leader
2. leader becomes corrupt from power
Third World nation political cycle
End of the Third World didn’t mean the end of people in desperate need
Resentment against Western powers remains due to large outstanding debts
Abandoned socialist anti- imperialism
4. new leader becomes corrupt
3. overthrow/coup d’etat
Angolan Agostinho Neto and Fidel Castro

11. From 9/11 to the Arab Spring
Bin Laden/Al Qaeda were motivated by: desire for social justice, distaste for globalization, desire to drive the USA out of the Middle East
9/11 led to serious changes in policy: militarized foreign policy
A War on Terror – what is terrorism?
USA in unwinnable wars in Iraq and Afghanstan created resentment
m/watch?v=VJDDSPYQgQ c

12. Arab Spring
Middle Easterners overthrow oppressive dictatorial regimes
Opted not for Western-style liberal governments; wanted Islamically- inspired government
As the movement went westward, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, and Lybia, became bloody and violent

13. Obama and the World Took office at bottom of 2008 economic downturn
Despite Bush blunders, Obama still saw the world as unipolar – didn’t fear BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) taking over
Aimed to maintain USA power by shifting cooperative efforts
Participated in ASEAN and APEC to find middle-ground of Asian intervention

14. Discussion Questions
Should Putin’s Russia be seen as a threat to the West?
Can Asia remain peaceful?
Was Barak Obama a successful foreign policy president?
Is the West in decline?