GPC Pretoria: Progress Report

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Presentation transcript:

GPC Pretoria: Progress Report MEETING OF THE CBS EXPERT TEAM ON OPERATIONAL PREDICTIONS FROM SUB-SEASONAL TO LONGER-TIME SCALES, EXETER, UK, 10-14 MARCH 2014 GPC Pretoria: Progress Report Asmerom F. Beraki South African Weather Service Pretoria, South Africa, asmerom.beraki@weathersa.co.za Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Introduction GPC-Pretoria has implemented new global ensemble forecasting system (EPS). The new EPS (comprise of AGCM and OAGCM) is more robust than the old EPS Capable of supporting the sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasts (both mandatory and additional products) Supporting the SAWS Multi-Model System (MMS) - SADC MMS intents to support the National roadmap for implementation of GFCS Research activities primarily focus on: Forecasting systems improvement improved access and uptake of LRF products by users Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Ensemble Prediction System (OAGCM) ECHAM4.5 AGCM and MOM3 OGCM coupled with Multiple Program Multiple Data (MPMD) coupler software: Initialized with realistic atmosphere, ocean and land states. Hindcast period 1982-2009 T42/L19 AGCM and variable horizontal resolution/ L25 OGCM 10 Ensembles (hindcast) and more flexible for real-time forecasts to expand ensemble size Supports seasonal timescale Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Ensemble Prediction System (OAGCM): Predictive skill Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Ensemble Prediction System (OAGCM): Predictive skill Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Ensemble Prediction System (ECHAM4p5 AGCM): Predictive skill Enhancements from current forecasting system: Better representation of uncertainty in the atmospheric state (initialized with NCEP/DOE reanalysis) Better description of uncertainty in the boundary (forced with MMES SST and its uncertainty envelope) Initialized with observed soil moisture (CPC) Demonstrates consistent skill improvement Hindcast period 1982-2009 30 Ensembles Supports sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Global seasonal climate outlook Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Regional (National) seasonal climate outlook Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01

Concluding remarks GPC-Pretoria implemented new forecasting system and would contribute to the sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales. Research informed by users requirement and more focus on forecast improvement (limited resources) More focus on applications, product utilization and stakeholders engagement (capacity development) Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: RES-LRF-PRES–WMO-Workshop-003.01