1. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling Paulo Nobre INPE-CPTEC Apoio:

2. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Outline Background development coupled O-A model at CPTEC Current operational version 1.0 –Seasonal and extended weather examples –Skill assessments –Climate studies Development of version 2.0 Future plans

3. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Background Originated from COLA coupled ocean- atmosphere model V. 0: COLA AGCM, RAS, SIB, T42L18, anomaly coupling to MOM_2 at 1/3 degree deep global tropics, L20. Version 1.0: CPTEC/COLA AGCM, RAS, SSiB, T062L28, fully coupled to MOM_3 at ¼ degree deep global tropics, L20.

4. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Development of INPE’s CPTEC CGCM 2.0 AGCM: –CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T213L64 –Kuo/RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection –Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…), – improved solar radiation algorithm –LSM: SSiB/IBIS OGCM: –MOM4 MPI, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50, free sfc, fresh water flux; –Dynamical ice –Biogeochemistry MOM4’s FSM coupler –3 hours coupling interval

5. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 MOM 4’s FMS COUPLER Flux Ocean to Ice Sfc Boundary Layer Update Ice Model up Update Land Model Flux down from Atmos Atmos Model Run Update Atmos Model up Flux up to Atmos Update Ice Model Atmos Loop Atmos Loop End Avg psurf Atmos-2-Ice SST-2-Atmos Update Land Model Flux Ice to Ocean Update Ice Model down Flux Land to Ice Ocean Loop Ocean Loop End Update Ocean Model Coupled Loop Coupler End Coupler Init Slow Loop Fast Fast

6. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 OGCM Modular Ocean Model (MOM) version 3 Global Tropics (40S – 40N) 1/4 x 1/4 degree deep tropics of the Atlantic Ocean Pacanowski and Philander vertical mixing Rigid lid approximation CGCM: (daily, fully coupled) to CPTEC AGCM, T062L28, RAS, SSiB. Atmos IC: NCEP Ocean IC: MOM3 forced runs, no Ocean Data Assimilation 10 members, 20 years of 8 month forecast runs starting at each calendar month for both AGCM and CGCM. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere predictability experiment

7. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 OGCM Grid High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic

8. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Coupled Ocean-Atmos GCM Suite Initialization IC Coupled Forecast Atmos FCSTs SFC Fluxes SST AGCM OGCM Tau & Heat OGCM daily IC NCEP IC NCEP IC NCEP ICs NCEP

9. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

11. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play DJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)‏ IncreasedCoupledModelForecastSkill

12. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Scientific Motivation: SACZ low predictability DJF MAM Marengo et al. (2002) CPTEC AGCM, 50 years, 10 Member Ensemble, Kuo, T062L28, Obs SST

13. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play DJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)‏ DecreasedCoupledModelForecastSkill

14. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 OI-SST / NCEP Reanalysis OGCM Climatology CGCM Climatology Eastern Oceans’ Coupled O-A Interactions

15. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM SWRad systematic errors

16. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM Current operational runs at CPTEC CGCM – seasonal climate –T062L28, RAS –10 Members per month –7 months forecast CGCM – extended weather –T126L28, RAS, –2 members per day –30 days forecast

17. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 SLP FCST BIAS OVER SE BRAZIL CGCM Ensemble AVN CPTEC126 CPTEC213

18. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 SLP RMSE over South America

19. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Anomaly Correlation Geopot. Hight over South America

20. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

21. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 72 hours CATARINA FCST CGCM-AGCM (T62L28) SLP ci: 12Z24MAR2004 FCST: 12Z27MAR2004 Nobre and Malagutti, (pers. comm)

22. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift

23. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CTRL Total deforest 25% rainfall reduction

24. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CTRL Total Deforest 40% rainfall reduction

25. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM 100% deforest departures PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE Nobre et al. (2008) accepted Statistically significant departures are shaded

26. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Pacific Thermocline Depth Deforest – Ctrl (shades) ‏ Nobre et al. (2008) accepted Statistically significant departures are shaded

27. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv) NADW AABW AAIW

28. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling 30 days avrg spinup SST

29. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling 30 days avrg spinup Precip

30. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal Data Assimilation AGCM OGCM Atmos OBS T-S IC Coupled Forecast Atmos FCST daily/hourly SFC fluxes SST OGCM AGCM 6 hourly Regional Model hourly Hydrology Model Crop Model Health Model Wave Model