Climate Change and Food Security in the Caribbean Using scenario analyses for decision support Adrian Trotman Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (Ag) Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

State of agriculture and food in the Caribbean Agriculture’s contribution to the economies of CARICOM states have been on the decline since the 1970s Net agricultural trade moved from being a surplus of US$2.9 billion in 1988 to a deficit of US$2.2 billion in 2004 (CARICOM donor conference draft document 2007) Losses in preferential markets for traditional crops in Europe Except for Guyana and Belize, CARICOM states became net importers of food The Jagdeo Initiative, seeks to breathe new life into the agriculture and related sectors

Recent Climate-related Impacts Flooding in Guyana in 2005 - affected 37 % of the population, 34 deaths, approximately US$55 million in damage to the agricultural sector. A similar, but smaller-scale event the following year resulted in total losses to the sector of US$22.5 million (ECLAC 2005, ECLAC 2006). In Grenada, damage to the agricultural sector by Hurricane Ivan (2004) totalled almost US$40 million. Damage to the nutmeg sub-sector concern for 30,720 ‘employees’ (OECS 2004). Spice industry set back 10 years. An intense drought event in 1999-2000 caused US$6 million in crop losses Jamaica (Jamaica Information Service, Ministry of Finance 2007). Coral reef deterioration, fish kills

Projected Climate Change 90% chance that temperatures will rise across the Caribbean - increase in the annual temperature could be in the range of 2 to 2.5oC likely (66%) that sea levels will rise in the Caribbean during this century rainfall is likely (66%) to decrease in the Greater Antilles (particularly in June & August) – however, projected decrease in annual precipitation in the region of 5 to 15% in Caribbean basin WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED MORE OFTEN

highlighting CARICOM members The Caribbean Region highlighting CARICOM members

Key Caribbean climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities and development goals Caribbean Initial effort in identifying which S/holders are relevant and important: different in each region Three regional examples of stakeholder concerns about GEC; also list of food policy goals (note that may not be connected). Issues Increasing extreme events Changes in sea currents & level ‘Ridge-to-Reef’ impacts of land degradation Key Policy Goals Increasing food self-sufficiency Improving trade policies & competitiveness Implementing CSM and the CSME Example Stakeholders National ag, env & tourism ministries Regional IGOs (CARICOM, IICA) Regional research bodies (FAO, CCCCC, CIMH, UWI, CARDI)

Analysing Food Systems in context of drivers and feedbacks Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing & Packaging Distributing & Retailing Consuming ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental Security, and other Societal Interests DRIVERS’ Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Food Utilisation Food Access Social Welfare Food Availability Environ Capital Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion Source: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. (2006) A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.

GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Funded by ICSU / UNESCO / US State Dept 3 main starting issues Extreme weather, climate, sea level Land use esp. “ridge-to-reef” Regional governance & CSME Preferential trade

GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Who was involved? ~30 people; 2 workshops & writing tasks over 6 months Social and natural scientists from regional research institutions (e.g. UWI, CIMH) Social and natural scientists from national research institutions (e.g. universities, national labs) Policy-makers from regional agencies (e.g. CARICOM, IICA) Policy-makers from national agencies (e.g. Min of Ag) International agencies (e.g. FAO, UNEP) GECAFS scenarios group

Environmental Management GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment World Development Globalization Regionalization Global Orchestration Order from Strength Proactive Reactive Environmental Management TechnoGarden Adapting Mosaic Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

Main Climate-related Drivers Same across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Temperature Mean Global: Increase by 1.5 to 2.0 Degree Celsius Caribbean: Increase of 1.0 to 1.5 Degree Celsius Rainfall Mean / Variability Global: Increase globally, but diverse spatial patterns Caribbean: Large uncertainty (potential: decrease in average, but increase in intensity) Hurricanes, Tropical depressions Global: Increase with increase sea temperature (maybe) Caribbean: Uncertainty (potential: increase in frequency) Sea level Global: Increase by 25 to 30 cm Caribbean: Increase by 25 to 30 cm -> more storm surges, salt-water intrusion Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Main Socioeconomic Drivers Differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Population growth & fertility rates Life expectancy & Age structure Migration (rural-urban) Economic Growth Equity Financial flows Unemployment Regional Cooperation Investments into agri science & technology Investments into human capital Dominant agricultural food policy Subsidies Import / Export Regulations & Focus (Relative) Price of food Transport cost Tourism Kind of Governance, Political Agendas Emergence of new markets (India, China; Green markets) US - Cuba Situation Security situation Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Other GEC Drivers Consequently differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios (example for land use change) Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Land Use Change High land use intensity plus abandoned marginal areas Agriculture not for staple food, but niche markets New urban areas on ‘good’ agricultural areas Some ‘land zoning’ At first like GC scenario, then shift, leads to mix Marginal land to provide basic food needs Use of good land for cash-crop areas, follow profits / export Specialized agriculture for niche markets Land use highly intensive, very productive agriculture Proactive land management More ‘integrated’ agriculture, more use of current marginal. More small-scale, yet intensive, production of niche products Current marginal lands will be brought into production Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Analysis of Food Security Outcomes Components & Elements (reminder) Food Security FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange Food Systems comprise a number of activities related to food production and preservation; food processing and packaging; food distribution and retail; and food consumption. In addition to underpinning food security, these activities give rise to a number of other outcomes many of which contribute to and influence other societal goals such as employment, health and social and environmental conditions.

Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [1] Developments described per scenario for each Food Security element (example for Food Access component) Food Access Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Affordability Lower food prices Income increase Fish price goes up, due to limited availability Lower economic growth, less income increase in food prices, also of staple food GEC shocks Incomes increase Different national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over time Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases Allocation etc… Preference Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [2] Developments systematically assessed per scenario for each Food Security element (example for Food Access component) Food Access Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Affordability + -- - Lower food prices (+) Income increase (+) Fish price goes up, due to limited availability (-) Lower economic growth, less income (--) Increase in food prices, also of staple food (--) GEC shocks (-) Incomes increase (+) Different national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over time (-) Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases (-) Allocation O Preference + / - Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [3] Assessments plotted based on FS concepts per scenario Global Caribbean Production ++ Food Safety Increase + Distribution Caribbean Order From Strength _ Social Value _ _ Decrease Inter-Regional Exchange Caribbean TechnoGarden Intra-Caribbean Exchange Nutritional Value Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Preference Affordability Allocation Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

GECAFS Scenarios Approach key outcomes raises awareness of GEC with policy-makers and other stakeholders raises awareness of policy issues and process with GEC researchers integrates information from different fields to explore possible developments systematically structures debate relating to environmental issues and food security builds science-policy regional “team” based on shared vision, understanding and trust tests downscaling methods will be extended to other regions under GEF proposal (in prep)