Introduction to global climate change and impacts in Ukraine National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Iryna Stavchuk, January 2009

Network of 16 non-governmental non-profit environmental organizations in Ukraine on climate change; Network of 16 non-governmental non-profit environmental organizations in Ukraine on climate change; Main aim: influencing policy decision makers to reduce GHG emissions in Ukraine to fight climate change; Main aim: influencing policy decision makers to reduce GHG emissions in Ukraine to fight climate change;

What do we do? We comment drafts of legislation related to climate change and positions of Ukrainian delegation to international negotiations We prepare NGO statements and positions on specific issues, e.g. International emissions trading, state of Kyoto protocol implementation in Ukraine.

Plan of the presentation Introduction to global climate change: Introduction to global climate change: what is happening? what is happening? what are the reasons? what are the reasons? what are the impacts? what are the impacts? Climate change impacts in Ukraine; Climate change impacts in Ukraine; State of international negotiations on climate change and future obligations for Ukraine State of international negotiations on climate change and future obligations for Ukraine

What is happening? Facts and observations +0,7 С warming from preindustrial levels; +0,7 С warming from preindustrial levels; 11 out of last 12 years ( ) are warmest in the period of observation 11 out of last 12 years ( ) are warmest in the period of observation

Antarctic is melting very fast and some studies predict total melting by already 2020! Antarctic is melting very fast and some studies predict total melting by already 2020! Same happening with glaciers all over the world Same happening with glaciers all over the world

Observations show shifting in rain patters with results of: Observations show shifting in rain patters with results of: increase in strength and number of draughts in tropics and subtropics, which is a tragedy for local populations; increase in strength and number of draughts in tropics and subtropics, which is a tragedy for local populations; increase in floods in other regions; increase in floods in other regions; increase in number of unstable weather events, hurricanes all over the planet increase in number of unstable weather events, hurricanes all over the planet

What are the reasons?

Changes in concentration of GHG over last years

What are the impacts? 1. Increase in number of extreme weather events: infrastructure damages, economic losses; 2. More unstable weather events: droughts, floods, heavy winds and rains – impacts on agriculture;

3. Water shortages for over 500 million people on the planet; 4. Increase in sea level rise. Around 100 million people are at the risk of loosing their houses; 5. Up to 50% of flora and fauna can disappear; 6. Risk of invasion by new insects and infectious diseases;

Dangerous warming

Necessary global emission reductions to keep in 2C International negotiations: Industrialized countries: % by 2020 from % by 2050 Developing countries would also have to reduce emissions! -50% for the whole planet by 2050

It is more expensive or could be impossible to adopt to climate change! Nicolas Stern: to keep within 2C we need 1% of global GDP Inaction means 5-20% losses of global GDP in the following decades. Economics of climate change

Climate change impacts in Ukraine

There are 2 scenarios:

First: Countries sign Post Kyoto deal with necessary emission reductions to keep warming within 2C; Countries sign Post Kyoto deal with necessary emission reductions to keep warming within 2C; In this case in Ukraine there will be certain negative impacts, but not catastrophic. In this case in Ukraine there will be certain negative impacts, but not catastrophic.

Second: Emissions in Ukraine and in other countries will not be limited to the necessary levels

1. More extreme weather events: storms, floods, droughts, heat waves, heavy rains and winds Statistics: during number and magnitude of extreme weather events increased almost twice in comparison with 1980s and early 1990s.

Possible changes in average temperature by 2100: South of Ukraine: South of Ukraine: summer °С (now °С), summer °С (now °С), winter °С (now °С) winter °С (now °С) Central and Northern Urkaine: Central and Northern Urkaine: summer °С (now °С), summer °С (now °С), winter °С (зараз °С) winter °С (зараз °С)

Rain South, East, Center: South, East, Center: Decrease in summer by 35-40% Decrease in summer by 35-40% Decrease in winter by 20% Decrease in winter by 20% Annual river stock decrease by 50% in south and east regions; Annual river stock decrease by 50% in south and east regions; Water shortage for local population, agriculture and industries. Water shortage for local population, agriculture and industries.

Movement of flora and fauna to the pole. Climate of east and south will get semidesert features, north will get steppe features; Movement of flora and fauna to the pole. Climate of east and south will get semidesert features, north will get steppe features;

Sea level rise; Sea level rise; Migration to Ukraine from the countries where it will be impossible to live. Migration to Ukraine from the countries where it will be impossible to live.

What does it mean to reduce GHG emissions? 1. Energy efficiency in all sectors: industrial, buildings, appliances, transport IEA, 2008

Energy efficiency

Ukraine in Post Kyoto negotiations Ukraine is an Annex 1 country and should take emission reduction target; Ukraine is an Annex 1 country and should take emission reduction target; Ukrainian government announced 20% reduction from the level of 1990 by 2020, but will have to take more. It is very likely that Ukraine would have to stabilize its emissions by Ukrainian government announced 20% reduction from the level of 1990 by 2020, but will have to take more. It is very likely that Ukraine would have to stabilize its emissions by 2020.

Iryna Stavchuk Thank you for attention!

Ukraine: GHG emissions

Ukraine: projections of GHG emissions by 2030