COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund Clive Bowman Clim-ATIC project coordinator UHI Science Day Pickaquoy Centre, Kirkwall, Friday 5th September 2008

Causes of climate change * IPCC 2007 It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years *

Fossil fuels used in transport

Domestic activities

Industry and manufacturing

Land management

Land use change and Forestry emissions 8% Energy 37% Public 2% Residential 11% Agricultural 12% Business 12% Transport 17% Scottish Green House Gas Emissions Contribution of each sector to Scottish GHG Emissions of GHGs in 2003 Scotland Rural Development Programme : Strategic Environmental Assessment - Environmental Report Waste 1%

Climate change is evident in Scotland from observed trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover. Much of the change in climate over the next 30 to 40 years is already determined by past and present emissions, so it is important that Scotland prepares itself for the inevitable impacts. SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006 Its already happening! And its going to get worse!

average spring, summer and winter temperatures have risen by more than 1°C since 1961 Change in mean temperature (°C) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004 SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006

UK top 10 warmest years Year (°C) Difference from average with respect to (Jan-Nov) Difference from average with respect to Difference from average with respect to Source: Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research Unit 2007

Change in precipitation (%) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004C5 SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006 Scotland has become much wetter since 1961 with: an increase in average winter precipitation of almost 60% in the north and west; an increase in average annual precipitation of 20% for the whole country. Some parts of north-west Scotland have become up to 45% drier in summer

Changes in winter river flows at selected locations SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006 high winter flow frequencies on western source rivers have increased over the past two decades

Profile A1A2B1B2 Population growth lowhighlowmedium GDP growth very highmediumhighmedium Energy use very highhighlowmedium Land- use changes lowmedium/highhighmedium Resource availability mediumlow medium Pace of technological change rapidslowmedium Change favouring F fossil T non fossil B balanced regionalefficiency & dematerialization dynamics as usual Summary characteristics of the 4 IPCC storylines A2 B1 B2

The IS92a scenario used by the IPCC is the business as usual scenario CO2 EMISSION PROFILES under IPCC scenarios

Global mean annual temperature changes relative to 1980 – 1999 ( ºC) for IPCC scenarios

Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the IS92a scenario for

AspectImplications Water resource More frequent and severe river flooding, affecting 77,000 properties Increased likelihood of summer droughts leading to river water quality problems and disruption of water supply Biodiversity Changes in abundance and distribution of species and length of growing season Higher temperatures less favourable for native species High intensity rainfall causing destruction to river habitat & Increased erosion and siltation with consequences for fish spawning Disruption to food chain with potential catastrophic loss of species (e.g. island breeding sea bird populations) Marine Higher sea level, increased wave height leading to coastal erosion and loss of habitat & more frequent and coastal flooding affecting 93,000 properties Loss of traditional commercial fishery Land surface Drying out of soils combined with higher intensity storm events causing landslides, with potential disruption of transport links Accelerated decomposition of peaty soils resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, fuelling further climate change Increased soil loss through water and wind erosion Changes to agricultural practice and crops (e.g. longer growing season) Human health Increased flood-related stress, illness and economic costs Increased respiratory illness and heat-related distress Fewer cold-related deaths Water quality Periods of reduced river flow providing less dilution for discharges with increased sewage treatment costs Increased treatment costs to provide water supplies Increased run-off impacting on bathing water quality Air quality Local and regional ozone air quality goals probably more difficult to achieve in the future An increase in summertime photochemical smog, linked to increasing temperatures and small reductions in cloud cover Likely that the frequency of wintertime air quality pollution events will reduce Weather The weather will become more erratic and therefore less predictable, with a greater likelihood of extreme events. Table of climate change impacts for Scotland taken from SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006

Communities are on the front line! How can they adapt?

The Clim-ATIC project 2.35 Million Euro Understanding climate change adaptation at a community level for northern regions European Regional Development Funds Northern Periphery Programme A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund

5 participating regions in Clim-ATIC Glen Urquhart and the Cairngorms National Park Flora, Sogn og Fjordane County of Vasterbotten, and Åre Rovaniemi, Kittilä and Kolari, Lapland Uummannaq Illulissat Sisimiut Iceland Faroe Islands

Adaptation to Climate change impacts anticipatory or reactive? The earlier we start adapting, the better equipped we will be to cope with higher temperatures, increased rainfall and the other potential changes. Adapting to climate change is a process. It needs to be built in to our normal planning and risk management processes, whether in business, government or community. Having the ability to adapt is called adaptive capacity and this is increased through: 1.knowledge 2.experience 3.resources

Diagram adapted from Finlands National Adaptation Strategy (2005) Socio-economic development Changes in natural systems Climate Change Impacts AdvantagesDisadvantages Adaptive capacity OpportunitiesThreats MitigationAdaptation Decision making

Build community capacity through knowledge with communities RovaniemiIlulissatCairngorms National Park FloraSogn og Fjordane LyckseleGlen Urquhart Culture and traditions Flooding Tourism Snow activities Fishing Tourism Sustainable transport Sustainable energy management Natural heritage Land use management Agriculture Tourism Biodiversity Risk management Sea level rise Health Energy management Business development County Plan for Climate and Energy Tourism Reindeer herding Forestry Agriculture Transportation Energy systems Snow cover Flooding Land use management Sustainable flood risk management Agriculture New development Tourism

Current climate Community Vulnerability Scenarios Current society Future climate change scenarios Future social change scenarios climate models and data + socio-economic data + local knowledge Knowledge sources

Climate change impact visualisations Community / stakeholder brainstorming meetings Community adaptation action plans Knowledge communication and use

Building adaptation knowledge with communities 11 to 18 year olds in the Cairngorms National Park

Forest owners in Sweden

Tourism operators in Rovaniemi, Finland

Landowners and farmers in Glen Urquhart

Ski area businesses in Åre, Sweden

Building community capacity through experience sustainable transport tourism opportunities sustainable energy management risk management and response Finland New tourism opportunities GIS flood mapping for development planning Greenland Dog sledging on thin ice! Climate change tourism and sustainable huts Fish waste to Bio- gas Norway Impacts on energy supply infrastructure Land slides and public warning system Scotland Trial of EV for community use Tourism opportunities and ski area adaptation Wood fuel cooperative – local business and suppliers River restoration project - sustainable flood management Sweden Winter tourism and sustainable transport project - partnership of ski industry and LA Woodland owners management plans

Dog sledge adaptations in Greenland Adaptation demonstration projects

Mapping the tourism products of Northern Finland

Fish waste to Bio-gas in Greenland

in Greenland Climate change tourism and sustainable accommodation huts in Greenland

Risk and response management in Norway

Tourism destination management in Scotland

GIS-based flood hazard maps - Rovaniemi, Finland

River restoration river Enrick, Glen Urquhart

Trial of EV for community use

The Clim-ATIC project A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund