Historical Evolution of International System/Society II The Emerging Global Order Post-Cold War Brian Newar – 4/2/18

From the End of the Cold War to a New Global Era? (Michael Cox) The USA unipolar movement After the Soviet Union The rise and decline of Europe Asian century speculation From 9/11 to Arab Spring and Obama Rising Powers and the Emerging Global Order (Hurrel) The post Cold War order US order challenged Emerging powers face three questions Rising states and the globalization of world politics Articles Discussed

From the End of the Cold War to a New Global Era? Setting the Stage Emergence of Superpowers in the USA and USSR top global powers The Third World became battle grounds (Korea, Vietnam, etc.) Gaddis- clear separation made the Cold War “a long peace” Was Mikhail Gorbachev largely responsible for the end?

The USA Unipolar Movement USSR gone and China still far from recovery “…hegemony is not omnipotence.” –Layne Hegemony – dominance of one country over others USA was powerful and trustworthy Some international failures (Somalia, Rwanda), but many victories (Serbs) through the 1990’s By 2000, USA was ‘hyperpower’ more than ‘superpower’

What about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

After the Soviet Union From centralized employment to market competitiveness Centralized employment – the government gave everyone a job Market competitiveness – markets determine people’s usefulness, job, and pay No plan nor means of action, but had super-rich actors Rise of Putin; wanted ‘acquiescence’ from Russian super-rich Failure to acquiesce? imprisonment or exile Russia was ‘an outside player that is neither eternal foe or automatic friend’ –Trenin

Rise and Decline of Europe Three benefits of Cold War end: Unification, self-determination, no possible large-scale war Self determination – country determines its own government United European States or separate and sovereign? European Securities and Defense Policy (1998) and European Security Strategy (2003): Europe engages more seriously with international affairs Most nations maintain weak military; major soft power Functioning EU > alternative arrangement

A New Asian Century? Asia lacked stability and institutional wealth; ASEAN is the biggest collective voice Major USA support in several countries led to economic explosion and military peace China now is seeing fast rise in power; neighboring countries are calling on USA for support (South Korea, Japan) “The world has a long way to go before we can talk of a post-Western world.” -Cox

A New Global South Third World nation political cycle 1. destitute people prop up enthusiastic leader 2. leader becomes corrupt from power Third World nation political cycle End of the Third World didn’t mean the end of people in desperate need Resentment against Western powers remains due to large outstanding debts Abandoned socialist anti- imperialism 4. new leader becomes corrupt 3. overthrow/coup d’etat Angolan Agostinho Neto and Fidel Castro

From 9/11 to the Arab Spring Bin Laden/Al Qaeda were motivated by: desire for social justice, distaste for globalization, desire to drive the USA out of the Middle East 9/11 led to serious changes in policy: militarized foreign policy A War on Terror – what is terrorism? USA in unwinnable wars in Iraq and Afghanstan created resentment https://www.youtube.co m/watch?v=VJDDSPYQgQ c

Arab Spring 2011 - Middle Easterners overthrow oppressive dictatorial regimes Opted not for Western-style liberal governments; wanted Islamically- inspired government As the movement went westward, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, and Lybia, became bloody and violent

Obama and the World Took office at bottom of 2008 economic downturn Despite Bush blunders, Obama still saw the world as unipolar – didn’t fear BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) taking over Aimed to maintain USA power by shifting cooperative efforts Participated in ASEAN and APEC to find middle-ground of Asian intervention

Discussion Questions Should Putin’s Russia be seen as a threat to the West? Can Asia remain peaceful? Was Barak Obama a successful foreign policy president? Is the West in decline?