The Human Population: Growth, Demography, and Carrying Capacity Chapter 12 “The problems to be faced are vast and complex, but come down to this: 6.2 billion people are breeding exponentially. The process of fulfilling their wants and needs is stripping earth of its biotic capacity to produce life; a climactic burst of consumption by a single species is overwhelming the skies, earth, waters, and fauna” Paul Hawken

Key Concepts Factors affecting human population size Human population problems Managing population growth

Factors Affecting Human Population Size Population change equation Population Change = (Birth +Immigration) – (Death – Emigration) Zero population growth (ZPG) Crude birth rate (BR) Crude death rate (DR)

Natural Rate of Increase <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Annual world population growth

Fertility Rates Replacement level fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman < 2 2-2.9 3-3.9 4-4.9 5+ No Data

Factors Affecting BR and TFR See bulleted list in text pg. 259 US BR’s and TFR’s 32 30 28 26 Births per thousand population 24 22 20 18 End of World War II 16 Demographic transition 14 Depression Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

Factors Affecting DR Life Expectancy Infant mortality rate (IMR) Infant deaths per 1,000 live births <10 <10-35 <36-70 <71-100 <100+ Data not available

Factors Affecting Natural Rate of Increase Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate Developing Countries Developed Countries 50 50 Crude birth rate 40 40 Rate of natural increase Rate of natural increase Rate per 1,000 people © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 30 30 Crude birth rate Crude death rate 20 20 Crude death rate 10 10 1800 2000 1775 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 1775 1850 1900 1950 2050 Year Fig. 12-17 p. 262

Population Age Structure Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Migration Environmental Refugees Reducing Births Family Planning Empowerment of women Economic rewards and penalties

The Demographic Transition Low High Relative population size (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transindustrial Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial growth rate Increasing Growth Very high Decreasing Zero Negative Birth rate Total population Death rate Time

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India Generally disappointing results: Poor planning Bureaucratic inefficiency Low status of women Extreme poverty Lack of support

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth In China Generally Positive Results: Economic incentives Free medical care Preferential treatment Intrusive and coercive Locally administered

Cutting Global Population Growth Family Planning Reduce poverty Elevate the status of women