1. Human Population
When is enough enough?

2. Historical Human Populations
Graph – page 2
Now in J-curve -exponential growth
Have we exceeded carrying capacity?
What is the carrying capacity of the earth?
Will we continue and experience catastrophic dieback?

7. Critical Questions? Is there a problem?
If yes, how significant as contrasted to other environmental and social problems?
If yes, how do we respond?
Desire for children - pronatalist & birth reduction pressures
Access to family planning

8. Human Demography Crude Birthrate (per 1000)
Total fertility rate – how does this relate to birthrate?
Replacement level of fertility : 2.1 in developed countries
Does reaching RLF mean ZPG – No. Why? (page 257)
Crude deathrate and birthrate (per 1000 per year)
Annual rate of population change(ARPC)= (BR - DR) /10
Expressed as a percent!!
Excludes migration
Doubling time in years = 70 years/ARPC as a %

11. Percentage Distribution (U.N. 98)

16. Demographic Transition
Population
Demographic Transition

17. Stages of Demo Transition (269)
Preindustrial Society
Transitional
High birthrates
Death rates falling
Often rapid growth for 1-2 generations
Industrial – low growth rate – birth rates still exceed death rates
Postindustrial – zero to negative growth rates

20. Demographic Transition Is this the Answer?
What is needed for this to occur?
How long is the middle or second stage?
Birthrates may increase in early and middle stages- RAPID GROWTH
Can we wait for last stages of transition? Or will (or is) carrying capacity be exceeded?
Are developing in “demographic trap” - never moving to final phases of transition?

22. Three Viewpoints of Future
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Social Justice

23. Optimistic View
World population will stabilize sometime in next century
Some countries success stories
Factors that support this viewpoint
Developed countries and demographic transition

24. Pessimistic View Countries will never complete transition
Have, or will, developing countries fall into “demographic trap” (269)
Factors (269)
Therefore:
Must use bold policies and family planning
Neo-Malthusians: “offer” or :impose” birth control

25. Social Justice
Fair share of earth’s resources and economic benefits only way to complete transition
Current situations in developing countries: due to effects of colonialism
Neo-Marxists:Eliminate human oppression and poverty-social justice will result in decreased population growth

26. Population Growth: Opposing Factors affecting TFR and Birth Rates (259)
Pronatalist pressures -parental desire for children
May have more impact on population growth than availability to contraceptives
Religious and cultural values
Average age of marriage
Desire for male children
Infant mortality
Economic advantages/disadvantages of children
Education and socioeconomic status of women

27. How far should a government go?
China – discuss their policies
Contrast to Thailand, India, and Japan
Different viewpoints
Oppose any population growth
Oppose rapid population growth
No regulation of population growth – having children is basic right that should not be influenced or regulated by governments.