Basic Forecasting Tips

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Presentation transcript:

Basic Forecasting Tips Phil Pascarelli & Zach Hiris

What is Forecasting? Forecasting is NOT about looking at forecast models Forecasting is about understanding the weather patterns, and using this knowledge to make an educated prediction Forecasting takes time- it’s not easy

Characteristics of a Good Forecaster Decisive, but cautious Able to learn from mistakes Desire to understand as much about Meteorology as possible Computer, People, and Communication skills

H Where To Start L Start with the big picture What are the big systems in the area? Use SPC Mesoanalysis, Upper-air maps, etc. Look at the current weather Surface observations (i.e. Oswego’s Tower), radar, satellite Look out the window! L H

Using Numerical Weather Prediction Start at the top Plot 300mb winds, 500mb heights/vorticity What are the significant features on the map? Identify ridges, troughs, etc Work your way towards the surface... L H

Forecast Models- Mid-levels The mid levels of the troposphere (500-850mb) can tell us a lot- if you know what to look for 700mb- Good for Lake-effect snow (a different BFB topic) Can show lift (Vertical Velocity) needed for rain/snow/storms Can also be used to see if there is a “cap” during severe weather season

Forecast Models- Mid Levels Cont’d 850mb is also an extremely useful tool Can be used for lake-effect snow (why?), severe weather, and many other situations On sunny days in the summer and early fall, 850mb temps can be used to predict surface high temperatures Use temperatures as a basic rain/snow line

Forecast Models- Surface Look for low/high pressure systems, fronts, etc. Compare surface charts to mid/upper levels- see how every layer interacts with each other L

Forecast Models- Surface Forecast models have a variety of surface maps Anything from 10m winds, to soil moisture are available on some sites It’s important to look at the basics for now- simple maps can tell you the most Basics 2m Temperatures, Surface Pressure, QPF (Precipitation), 10m winds, etc.

Model Output Statistics (MOS) MOS uses raw output from the forecast model (GFS/NAM), and uses statistical regression to determine temperatures, winds, probability of precipitation, etc. Like the models themselves, MOS is not perfect, and is just a tool! Goal as a forecaster is to recognize and adjust to errors from the models/MOS, rather than copying the numbers!

Model Ensembles Most forecast models have an ensemble forecast in addition to the operational forecast model (GFS-GEFS, NAM-SREF, ECMWF-EPS) Each ensemble member has small changes to the forecasting scheme Good indicator of confidence in a solution

BUFKIT A specialized program developed by the National Weather Service Used primarily for Lake-effect snow Can also be used for severe weather, temperature forecasting, precipitation type diagnosis, etc.

Other Forecasting Tools SHARPpy Program which plots observed and forecast soundings Similar to BUFKIT, but focused more on severe weather

Sources of Information Current Observations http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/ http://www.weathertap.com/ Weather Models https://wwwl.accuweather.com/pro_login.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html (E-Wall) Bufkit http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/index.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html (Bufkit Data) SharpPy https://github.com/pmarshwx/SHARPpy