North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

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Presentation transcript:

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~bw/narccap GFDL Contribution: Special runs (30 yr control and 30 yr A2) of CM.1, GFDL’s IPCC coupled model with high time resolution (8/day) output for downscaling; interpolated to pressure levels as requested “time-slice” runs of a ~50km global atmospheric model; control uses observed SST/sea ice; CM2.1 SST sea ice anomalies (A2 minus control -- monthly means and 30yr trends) with high time-resolution (8/day) over N. America (currently only available on model’s native vertical levels; interpolation routine provided -- see link above)

Change in snow mass: A2 minus control DJF

Zonal mean zonal wind response: are the differences due to higher resolution or decoupling? Poleward movement of westerlies in winter much larger in M180

Sea level pressure response (A2 - control) over N.America JJA DJF

Precip response over globe: are the differences due to resolution or decoupling?

Surface air temperature response DJF JJA

Winter Precipitation in Western US (control) M180 -- DJF

Regional model of Atlantic basin -- but developing new 50km global model that also looks very promising (current model produces relatively few Atlantic tropical storms) Hope to have new and improved 50km time-slices within 1-2 years Knutson et al, BAMS 2007

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~bw/narccap

AR4: 2080-2099 (A1B) - 1980-1999 N. America temperature Precipitation % Need to do better than this #models with dP > 0