1. World Bank Office, Vienna, May 2016
Climate Modelling for Bosnia and Herzegovina and its Applications (Case Study: GEF Project Titled "Adaptation to Climate Changes Along the Vrbas River Watershed“)
World Bank Office, Vienna, May 2016

2. Floods in Western Balkans, May 2014

3. Floods in BiH, May 2014

4. Floods in BiH, May 2014

5. Introduction
Changes in extreme daily precipitation according to different scenarios of climate changes
On the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina can be expected climate changes in the future, especially in the case of climate scenarios that do not provide for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

6. Increase in temperature (2,4-4 °C)
Even if in the future the achievement of an international plan of reduction of emissions to levels that will provide a stop the increase in global mean temperature to a value of 1.5 °C we can expect further change in climatic conditions
Medium anomaly for mean global temperature is 0,85 °C in relative to pre-industrial period
Increase in temperature (2,4-4 °C)
Extreme precipitations

7. Horizontal Resolution
Climate Models
Regional Model
Horizontal Resolution
Scenario
Reference Period
Future Period
Global Model
NMMB
8 km
RCP8.5
CMCC-CM
EBU-POM
25 km
A1B
ECHAM5 A2

8. NMMB model
Regionalization of climate scenario RCP8.5 (Moss et al., 2008) which is defined by IPCC Five Assesment Report (IPCC – AR5)
Horizontal resolution of model NMMB is 8 km
Reference period:
Integration of future climate cover period
For limiting condition in integration RCP8.5 scenario, we used results of global climate model CMCC-CM (Scoccimarro et al )

9. EBU-POM model
EBU-POM model – regionalization of A1B i A2 scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) which is defined by IPCC Forth Assesment Report (IPCC – AR4)
Horizontal resolution of EBU-POM model is 25 km
For limiting condition in integration scenarios A1B i A2, we used results of global climate model ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al. 2003).
Regional climate model EBU-POM is total related atmosperic-ocean model (Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, 2008; Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, 2010).
Atmospheric component is Eta model; ocean component is Prinstons ocean model (POM)

10. Climate modeling in GEF project “Adaptation to Climate Changes Along the Vrbas River Watershed”
GEF project – climate modelling according to regional model NMMB for scenario RCP 8.5 (AR5, IPCC)
Scenario RCP8.5 has high horizontal resolution (8 km) and time (6 h)
For limiting condition in integration RCP8.5 scenario, we used results of global climate model CMCC-CM
Reference period: ; integration of future climate cover period
For integration of NMMB model we used ORIENTGATE project database

11. Accumulated precipitations (month, season or year) mm RR20
Index
Definition
Unit RR
Accumulated precipitations (month, season or year) mm
RR20
Nuber of days with daily precipitations higher than 20 mm
dan
RR20t
Total accumulated precipitations in days with daily precipitations higher than 20 mm TG
Mean temperature (month, season or year) °C
TX30
Nuber of days with daily temperature higher than 30 °C
Day
TTX30
Daily mean temperature in days with temperature higher than 30 °C
R5D60
Number of episodes with five-days accumulated precipitations higher than 60 mm
Number of episodes
R5D60t
Total accumulated precipitations during episodes with five-days accumulated precipitations higher than 60 mm
SNO
Medium hight of accumulated snow m
SNOD
Number of days with snow cover

12. Scenario RCP (Year)

13. Scenario RCP (Year)

14. Scenario RCP (Year)

15. Scenario RCP (MAM)

16. Scenario RCP (JJA)

17. Scenario RCP8.5 2011-2041 (Year) RR20

18. Scenario RCP (MAM) RR20

19. Scenario RCP (JJA) RR20

20. Changes in number of episodes with accumulated percipitations (R5D60)

21. Expected temperature changes – period 2011-2040 (Year)

22. Expected temperature changes – period 2011-2040 (JJA)

23. Expected temperature changes – period 2011-2040 (DJF)

24. Changes in number of tropical days (30 ◦C)

25. Changes in medium hight of accumulated snow

26. Changes in number of days with snow cover

27. Future of climate modelling BiH
Important to continue with researching
Create models according to IPCC methodology
Create models for Bosna River and Drina River watersheds
Permanently do climate forecasts
According to climate forecasts improve adaptation to climate change

29. Thank you for your attention!