Lecture 5 The Blair Revolution 1997-2007

In 1990… The conservative party ended Margaret Thatcher’s 11-years of leadership, replacing her with John Major in 1990. Later, an election was held in1992 and the Conservatives won a fourth successive electoral victory, even though the economy was still in recession. Most of the polls had predicted either a narrow Labour victory or a hung parliament. Major's vigorous campaigning, notably his claim that the UK would have higher prices and higher taxes under a Labour government, was seen to have been crucial in his election win. The Conservative Party also touched upon the issue of immigration, claiming that under Labour, immigration would rise hugely.

Economic recession During his time as prime minister, the UK was deep in recession.

Research: 1) What was Black Wednesday? 2) What was the ‘European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)’? 3) What is a ‘recession’?

After black Wednesday… Soon after, approximately one million householders faced repossession of their homes during a recession that saw a sharp rise in unemployment, taking it close to 3,000,000 people. The Conservative party subsequently lost much of its reputation for good financial stewardship although the end of the recession was declared in April 1993 bringing economic recovery and a fall in unemployment.

Other Problems for the conservatives… From 1994-1997, Major privatised British Rail, splitting it up into franchises to be run by the private sector. Its success is hotly debated, with a large increase in passenger numbers and investment in the network balanced by worries about the level of subsidy. Train fares cost more than under British Rail.[55] The party was plagued by internal division and infighting, mainly over the issue over policy towards the European Union. The party's eurosceptic wing, represented by MPs such as John Redwood, opposed further EU integration, whilst the party's pro-European wing, represented by those such as Chancellor of the Exchequer Kenneth Clarke, was broadly supportive. The issue of the creation of a single European currency also inflamed tensions, and these would continue to dog the party until the early-2000s (decade). These divisions gave off an impression of a divided party, which had lost touch with the voters.

And in 1997… The Conservatives lose to Labour, ending their almost 20-year reign as head of government.

So we know that the conservatives made mistakes… How is it that the Labour Party could not win an election between 1979 and 1997?

Labour Party in the 1980s… Internal fighting A strong “far left” and “centre” at odds with one another. The far left wanted bigger government, and the centre wanted the Labour Party to adapt to a changing UK and changing global economy. Because they could not agree, they continued to lose elections until…

Tony Blair & “New Labour”

Research: 1) Read the first few paragraphs on Tony Blair (Wikipedia). What are some of major events Tony Blair was responsible for during his time as prime minister? 2) What is ‘New Labour”?

Tony Blair In May 1997, the Labour Party won a landslide general election victory, the largest in its history, allowing Blair, at 43 years of age, to become the youngest Prime Minister since 1812. In September 1997, Blair attained early personal popularity, receiving a 93% public approval rating, after his public response to the death of Diana, Princess of Wales. The Labour Party went on to win two more general elections under his leadership: in 2001, in which it won another landslide victory, and in 2005, with a greatly reduced majority. His government also held referenda in which the Scottish and Welsh electorates voted in favour of devolved administration. In Northern Ireland, Blair was involved in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Blair supported the foreign policy of the George W. Bush administration, and ensured that the British Armed Forces participated in the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and, more controversially, the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Blair has faced criticism for his role in the invasion of Iraq, including calls for having him tried for war crimes and waging a war of aggression.

New Labour political philosophy of New Labour was influenced by the party's development of Anthony Giddens' "Third Way", which attempted to provide a synthesis between capitalism and socialism. The party emphasised the importance of social justice, rather than equality, emphasising the need for equality of opportunity, and believed in the use of free markets to deliver economic efficiency and social justice.

…2007 Tony Blair remained prime minister until 2007. Though he began his time as prime minister as a young, popular and innovative politician, his later years as prime minister… Spitting Image: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyDBsMi7WE8

War in Iraq, raising taxes New Labour wanted to improve social programmes and the welfare state… …but as the interviewer in the Spitting Image video asked, “BUT HOW WILL YOU PAY FOR IT?” Tax + military industry Raising tax is an unpopular move, and while expanding the military industry (weapons, vehicles, military technology) can create jobs and provide revenue…

War in Iraq http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/25/opinions/blair-iraq-war/index.html Blair’s choice to involve the UK…

After Blair: Gordon Brown takes Blair’s place as prime minister until 2010.

Gordon Brown Became prime minister during the global financial crisis. From Scotland Many Labour Party politicians were sceptical of his choices as prime minister, and several times they tried to replace him. Strengthened the UK economy during the global financial crisis by nationalising major banks.

In 2010, a new election: In the 2010 general election on 6 May that year, Labour with 29.0% of the vote won the second largest number of seats (258). The Conservatives with 36.5% of the vote won the largest number of seats (307), but no party had an overall majority, meaning that Labour could still remain in power if they managed to form a coalition with at least one smaller party. However, the Labour Party would have had to form a coalition with more than one other smaller party to gain an overall majority; anything less would result in a minority government. On 10 May 2010, after talks to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats broke down, Brown announced his intention to stand down as Leader before the Labour Party Conference but a day later resigned as both Prime Minister and party leader.

Coalition Government Conservatives + Liberal Democrats What happened? Read together: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/what-is-a- coalition-government/

2015 Election Conservatives win, coalition ends. David Cameron, Prime Minister

Election Promises For some time, the people of the UK had been unhappy with the European Union (EU) and its control over UK policies. The Conservative Party under Cameron promised that, if elected, a referendum would be held to decide

Research: 1) What is a referendum? 2) The EU referendum is one example… locate one more (hint: 2014)

David Cameron… Cameron kept to his promise to hold a referendum on EU membership, and said he would support the “remain” side. He also said that if the UK people vote for Brexit (British + Exit), he would resign.

Brexit In a referendum on 23 June 2016, 51.9% of the participating UK electorate (the turnout was 72.2% of the electorate) voted to leave the EU. On 29 March 2017, the British government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. The UK is thus on course to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.

Cameron Resigns… And the Conservatives replace him with Theresa May.

Discussion: Considering the historical, social and cultural changes that we have discussed so far in this course… 1) What helped the (New) Labour Party’s leadership last from 1997-2010? 2) Why would ‘New Labour’ appeal to the UK people? 3) In 2015, the UK’s membership with the EU (first decided in 1973 and confirmed in 1975) came to an end. Why would EU membership be so controversial?

Up Next: Lecture 6 Brexit and the UK in 2017. Link to reading for the lecture: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887