Mass Movement Hazards and Risk The probability that a specific damaging event will happen within a specific area in a particular period of time (ISOfTMB/RMWG, 2007). Vulnerability the susceptibility of an element to a hazards Technological aspects include: damage and loss of life, which are subjects studied by engineers and geoscientists. Human aspects include: in addition to loss of life, loss of livelihood, physical displacement, and psychological and environmental impacts of hazardous events. Coping capacity the ability of an element to respond to and reduce the negative effects of a hazardous event Exposure the overlap in space and time of a hazardous process and infrastructure or population 9/17/2018

Mass Movement Hazards and Risk more commonly a subject of the social sciences f(hazard, exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity) 9/17/2018

Increasing impact of hazards is driven by accelerating population growth (in prone areas) associated increased demand for land resources, urbanization the capability of modern technology to drastically change land form and processes change in climate 9/17/2018

Risk f(hazard, exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity) Composition Value Quantity Internal mechanisms Vulnerability Coping Capacity Mechanism Rate Magnitude/ Frequency Extent Hazard Exposure 9/17/2018

Composition Mechanism Value Rate Quantity Magnitude/ Internal mechanisms Vulnerability Coping Capacity Mechanism Rate Magnitude/ Frequency Extent Hazard Exposure 9/17/2018

An external side influenced by: Vulnerability has: An external side influenced by: Political Economy Approaches social inequities, disproportionate division of assets Human Ecology Perspectives Population dynamics and environmental management capacities Entitlement Theory relates vulnerability to the incapacity of people to obtain or manage assets via legitimate economic means An internal side (coping) The capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a hazard and is influenced by: Crisis and Conflict Theory control of assets and resources, capacities to manage crisis situations and resolve conflicts Action Theory Approaches how people act and react freely as a result of social, economic or governmental constrains Model of Access to Assets mitigation of vulnerability through access to assets 9/17/2018 Ciurean et al, 2013; Bohle, 2001

Scales of Impact All four components of risk- hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity are dynamic and can vary greatly over a range of temporal and spatial scales. 9/17/2018

Evaluating Hazard understand and, if possible, quantify the processes that create the hazard derive a frequency- magnitude model for the hazard 9/17/2018

Landslides at the Mount Meager massif, British Columbia, Friele et al., 2008 9/17/2018

Variables for Analysis PH the probability of the hazard PLOL the annual probability of loss of life for an individual PS:H the spatial probability that the event will reach the individual PT:S the temporal probability of impact (the percentage of time the individual occupies the hazard area, in this case the affected part of the valley) V the likelihood of loss of life should the individual be affected by the hazardous phenomenon, which is a function of the intensity of the process at that location E the element of concern, in this case the number of lives potentially at risk. N is the product of the number of elements at risk (E) and their vulnerability ( V) to the hazard under consideration 9/17/2018

As low as reasonably practical Unacceptable risk is generally considered unacceptable by society and requires mitigation; As low as reasonably practical risk from a hazard should, wherever possible, be reduced; Broadly acceptable risk from a hazard is within the range that society can tolerate; Intense scrutiny region the potential for large loss of life is low, but careful consideration is required. 9/17/2018 Friele et al., 2008

The most important concept: Of all our abilities, we are best at predicting runout 9/17/2018