PREV AIR : An operational system for large scale air quality monitoring and forecasting

Architecture of the PREVAIR System 3D Chemistry Transport Models... CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS MOCAGE / METEO-France open system to other models... … Driven by meteorological forecasts: AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5 higher resolution forecasts) ARPEGE, ALADIN... Using input data: emissions inventory (EMEP) boundary conditions (MOZART) land-use (GLCF data base) NRT observation data: BASTER/ADEME NRT database centralizes data from 40 French local AQ monitoring networks bilateral cooperation with other partners Chemical forecasts Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts Numerical AQ forecast data Forecast s (maps) French NRT data (BASTER) Analysis (maps) Observation s (maps) Others partners NRT data...

available at D+0, 00 h LT on the web site daily peak and averaged concentration maps for D+0, D+1, D+2 pollutants: O 3, NO 2 (France and Europe) and PM (Europe) O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+0 O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+2 O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+1 PREVAIR outputs: daily forecasts

PREVAIR outputs: scores (quality stats)

PREVAIR numerical data extraction over user-defined domains available through the Internet for AQ networks (user accounts) Applications AQ information on public French channels (TV) direct use for a local information (GIS) input data for local modelling purposes : ESMERALDA (Paris + 6 regions) AERES (Marseille region), etc … PREVAIR outputs: numerical forecast data

PREVAIR outputs: budgets long term analysis Ozone, averaged peak (µg/m3) during summer 2003

Modelled concentrations corrected with near real time data: Near real time data from 150 selected stations Statistical adaptation using a kriging method Available at J+0 with updates if near real time observations available Feasibility study for the PM For the day before and the current day July 31, 2004 PREVAIR outputs: ozone analysis immediately available for information (web sites, media…) = O3 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m 3 ) O3 simulation (µg/m 3 ) + Near real time data

collecting Near Real Time data ADEMEPREV AIR 40 AQ networks Near real time national data base local networks web sites Local data base 680 sites ADEME hour LOCAL NATIONAL O 3 NO 2 SO 2 PM10 PM2.5 Raw data 15 days in line

Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12 of September 2004 Maps of daily max and mean measured concentrations : for O 3, NO 2, PM2.5 and PM10 for O 3, NO 2, PM2.5 and PM10 using observations made using observations made between 0h and T time between 0h and T time hour by hour updating if data hour by hour updating if data available (pollution events) available (pollution events) for D day and the 6 previous days for D day and the 6 previous days PREVAIR outputs: maps near real time data

Involvement in the GMES program (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) : PROMOTE (ESA) = PROtocole MOniToring for the GMES service Element on atmospheric composition ( Stage 1 (2004-5): demonstrator Stage 2 (2006-8): develop air quality services related to forecasting and mapping; define a cooperative framework with other European AQ teams GEMS (EU) = Global and regional Earth-system (atmosphere) Monitoring using satellite and in-situ data contribution to the Air Quality part for the development of data assimilation methods and ensemble forecasts Towards an European framework...

=> Looking for bilateral cooperation with other European partners : for NRT data exchange : necessary to build analyzed maps and to evaluate the simulated results (contact: for forecasts or analyzed maps: users accounts could be available to download over specific areas (contact: Towards a European framework...

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Built for operational purposes: In France public information related to pollution episodes (threshold exceedances) can be driven by observations but also by forecasts since 2003 The system : a cooperative system for large scale air quality monitoring, forecasting and mapping over Western Europe and France ; set up in 2003 by: INERIS Public organization under the supervision of the Ministry of Ecology Builds up and hosts the prev air system AQ expertise for the Ministry Model development CHIMERE aerosol ADEME National Agency of Environment Builds up and hosts the NRT database AQ expertise for the Ministry CNRSNational Research CentreModel development : CHIMERE Météo FranceNational Meteorological services Model development : MOCAGE + meteorological forecasts PREVAIR :

The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREVAIR Domains: over Europe over France Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1° Vertical resolution:8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa Meteorological forecast data AVN / NCEP for initialization and boundary conditions MM5 higher resolution forecasts ARPEGE Chemical scheme MELCHIOR (47 species, 125 reactions) Aerosol module 7 species (PPM, SOA, nitrate, sulphate, ammonium, Water Contents, dust) 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase) See http//euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere PREVAIR 3D chemistry transport models

The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREVAIR Domains Global Model / Over Europe / Over France Horizontal resolution: 4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hPa Meteorological forecast data ARPEGE and ALADIN Chemical scheme RACMOBUS (118 species, 381 reactions) No aerosol module PREVAIR 3D chemistry transport models

680 Monitoring stations Poste Central Air quality information system Air quality information system 40 local networks and 40 local data bases DG Environnement AEE / ETC Public information and Médias French ministry Forecastin g Prévair Researchs programs National database Validated data Near real time databaseBase Temps réel Raw data Only 15 days in line