Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path 14 September 2018 Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Notes to the trainer: This presentation has been compiled for your use in training sessions. It is intended to be a source of material, putting Module 6 of the SWITCH Training Kit into slide form for your convenience. Please extract/adapt/shorten/tailor the presentation according to your needs, while respecting the terms of use detailed on the final slide of this presentation. In particular, the trainer should always make links to the local context, to local issues and realities, to make the presentation most relevant for its audience. The text in the notes section of each slide is taken directly from the modules and is intended to give you, the trainer, pointers on what to focus on for each slide. The notes are not intended directly for the presentation audience, so please pick out the most relevant points. Presentation tips for trainers: An average slide presentation should not be more than 10 to 12 slides: make allowance for people’s limited listening attention span. However, do not rush your presentation. If a complex image is shown, participants need some time to get their head around it. If you lack the time, make sure not to show any complicated figures or diagrams. In the case of longer presentations, breaks are needed for allowing questions/comments/discussions. However, a balance should be struck: allowing questions any time is not necessarily the best solution – it can be disturbing and break the flow of information to be provided. A solution is to plan for interruptions by structuring slide presentations into meaningful chunks of content. Presentations typically make for one way communication, but it is possible and advisable to turn them into a tool for two-way communication (or ‘interactive presentation’), by using the slides to get into a conversation with participants. For example: – The presenter can ask questions from her/his side, such as: “is this also true/relevant here in your city?” – The presenter can ask participants to guess a piece of information that is then revealed on the next slide, e.g. “20 years ago, water consumption in your city was 150 l/day – what do you think it is now?” – The presenter can use images rather than text and ask participants what they see; he/she can then build on their feedback to introduce a certain issue – Etc. Module 6 of the SWITCH Training kit

Issues with current decision making 14 September 2018 Decisions use… Assumptions about the future Narrow assessment criteria Sector-specific knowledge … and ignore: Environmental impacts Economic impacts Social impacts (Module 6, p. 10) Decisions derive from considering a variety of information. For example: • Quantified data – for example economic costs, water availability, historical rainfall figures, etc. • Current issues – for example inadequate water services, pollution, incidence of flooding, etc. • Future predictions – for example demographic change, climate scenarios, economic growth, etc. • Political mileage to be gained – for example establishing a legacy, satisfying popular opinion, enforcing regulation, etc. • Stakeholder interests – for example water demands, housing requirements, business needs, etc. For example, the decision to construct drainage pipes to convey stormwater away from a new area of development may have been taken following an assessment of observed rainfall rates and the financial cost of implementation. However, such limited assessment criteria ignores indirectly related, but nevertheless important, aspects of the: • environmental impacts caused by large volumes of potentially polluted stormwater entering receiving water bodies at high velocity; • economic impacts of increased incidences of downstream flooding of agricultural land; and • social impacts of reduced availability of groundwater for water supply. In addition, the lack of consideration for future climatic variation may render the chosen pipe specifications inadequate for future rainfall events. Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

A lack of holistic decision making 14 September 2018 Why? Lack of data Fragmentation Perception of future variability Data exclusion Lack of stakeholder engagement (Module 6, p. 11) Lack of data: Extending the range of assessment criteria requires access to, and interpretation of, increasing amounts of data. This can be a time consuming and costly exercise. Fragmentation of the water sector: The different sectors of urban water management often operate in isolation from one another. This results in a lack of incentive and/or ability to consider impacts outside of the main area of responsibility. Limited perception of future variability: The design of most standard water management interventions rely on assumed future conditions. Decisions are therefore taken based on a defined range of future variability which is difficult to predict. Exclusion of data: Criteria such as construction costs and amount of water delivered are easy to quantify and make use of in a decision-making process. Indirect criteria such as environmental and social costs and benefits are more difficult to put a figure to which disguises their true value and reduces their influence. Lack of stakeholder engagement: Stakeholder engagement in water management decision making processes often extends no further than the public announcement of a decision that has already been taken. Such a failure to engage with those that will be most affected by a decision limits the understanding of its true impact. Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

A more integrated approach to decision making 14 September 2018 A more integrated approach to decision making Aspect of decision- making Conventional approach Integrated approach Decision-making data Direct costs and benefits Direct and indirect costs and benefits Scope of the decision-making process Single management sector Urban development as a whole Future uncertainty The future is predicted as a fixed scenario The future is acknowledged as being uncertain Stakeholder involvement Minimal stakeholder involvement. Comprehensive stakeholder engagement Use of indicators Performance indicators > Limited set of sector goals. Sustainability indicators > Overall urban development goals. (Module 6, p. 12) A holistic perspective, flexibility and stakeholder engagement are key characteristics of IUWM. This is reflected in integrated decision-making where measures that are most effective at improving the overall sustainability of the system are sought. Integrated decision making requires a broad view of all areas that are related, directly or indirectly, to the aspect of water management under consideration. An IUWM approach also acknowledges that the future is uncertain thereby giving a greater weight of importance to decisions that increase a city’s ability to cope with, or adapt to, a range of future scenarios. Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

Key aspects of integrated decision making 14 September 2018 Key aspects of integrated decision making A holistic perspective Flexibility Stakeholder engagement (Module 6, p. 13-16) Holistic: The first step of an integrated decision-making process is an increased understanding of a city’s water system and its manifold influences. This is a complicated task as detailed knowledge of the cause and effect relationships within and between water related human activities and natural systems is not easy to establish. Flexible: More flexible decision making involves the acknowledgement that numerous future scenarios are a possibility. The decision criteria will therefore consider not just the cost of implementing an option but also its resilience to unexpected change´and the costs of adapting the option should the future not pan out as anticipated. Stakeholder engagement: A detailed stakeholder analysis and comprehensive engagement plan should therefore ideally be a key aspect of any integrated decision-making process. Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

Form and function of DSS 14 September 2018 (Module 6, p. 19) A DSS is typically an interactive software-based facility that can be used to compile, assess and present information about a system where human activities and natural processes interact such as the urban water cycle. A DSS does not make decisions but rather manages and presents information in a way that supports the judgement of decision makers allowing them to learn from past actions and explore potential interventions. DSS can be used for the following purposes within an integrated approach to decision making: • assessing the impact of different strategies through holistic evaluation of the system; • optimising potential interventions based on defined criteria; • analysing the likely response of the system under different future scenarios; and • providing a data storage facility and source of knowledge. In order to perform these functions, a DSS will usually consist of the following three integrated components: • Knowledge database • Modelling programmes • User interface Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

Modelling Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path 14 September 2018 (Module 6, p. 22-23) Many DSS include different types of models. These use the data stored in the knowledge base to replicate and assess the behaviour of real systems, such as elements of the urban water cycle. This assessment allows the user to examine how the system responds to potential interventions and alternative future scenarios. The main advantage of using different modelling techniques is the opportunity it offers to simultaneously analyse the complexity of large numbers of cause-effect relationships within the system in relation to different input parameters. Combinations of different options can then be analysed simultaneously rather than individual ones in isolation. Decision-support models tend to focus on an area of water management, such as physical drainage characteristics, water demand, or economic costs. Different models can however be integrated within the DSS to build up a complete understanding of urban water management Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

DSS examples (1) City Water Urban Water Optioneering Tool Aquacycle 14 September 2018 City Water Urban Water Optioneering Tool Aquacycle Source: EPFL, Lausanne Source: National Technical University of Athens (Module 6, p. 28-38) City Water is a DSS that combines a knowledge and information sharing platform with a suite of simulation models. Developed within SWITCH, City Water is designed to support more integrated decision making for urban water management. UWOT is a model that simulates the urban water cycle by representing water use and flows at individual household level as well as the combined effects at the development scale. UWOT can also be used as an optimisation tool to determine the most sustainable combination of water management solutions. Aquacycle is designed to integrate the rainfall-stormwater runoff system with the potable supply-wastewater system of an urban environment. The integration of these different elements of the urban water cycle allows a comprehensive water balance to be created that is used as the basis for assessing the impacts of different urban water management strategies. Source: Mitchell 2005 Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

DSS examples (2) Eco.SWM – Life Cycle Cost Assessment 14 September 2018 Eco.SWM – Life Cycle Cost Assessment COFAS – Comparing the Flexibility of Alternative Solutions VENSIM-based Water Demand Management Options Model Source: Ingenieurgesellschaft Sieker Source: Ingenieurgesellschaft Sieker (Module 6, p. 39-45) Eco.SWM is a calculation tool for computing and comparing economic costs through the use of Net Present Values (NPV); a standard method of discounting future payments to a present value. The use of NPVs allows the user to analyse the complete financial aspects of different solutions giving a better understanding of the full life-cycle costs. The COFAS method is based on the Utility Value Analysis (UVA) technique, a form of multi-criteria assessment which uses the sum of weighted indicators (such as cost, energy emissions, water quality parameters, etc.) to compare alternative products or solutions. COFAS adds an additional dimension to this technique by assessing the level of variation associated with these utility values under a variety of conditions. The Ventana Systems Environment Model (VENSIM, http://www.vensim.com) is a generic visual modelling tool which has been utilised in the SWITCH project to create a framework to assess and compare the cost effectiveness of different water demand management options. The Microsoft Excel spreadsheet based model runs on a set of input data that is made up of cost and water use values related to individual options, and location specific information concerning the details of the target water user groups. Source: WEDC Decision-Support Tools – Choosing a sustainable path Project outline, Management and Organisation www.switchtraining.eu

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