Richard Graham (Met Office Hadley Centre, Chair ET-OPSLS) Overview: WMO ET-OPSLS (Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-seasonal to Longer Time-Scales) Richard Graham (Met Office Hadley Centre, Chair ET-OPSLS) Joint WGSIP16/ET-OPSLS meeting, 10 March 2014, Exeter, UK © Crown copyright Met Office

CBS - OPAG on Data-Processing and Forecasting System (OPAG-DPFS) GDPFS main purpose: make available to Members in the most cost-effective way meteorological analyses and forecast products. The design, functions, organizational structure (e.g. RMSCs) and operations of the GDPFS shall be in accordance with Members' needs and their ability to contribute to and benefit from the system. The ET-OPSLS guides design, functions, organizational structure for long-range forecasting, notably: Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs) and associated Lead Centres (LC) ToRs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/opace/opace3/ET-OPSLS.php The Climate Services Information System (CSIS) of the GFCS will build on GDPFS infrastructure – ET-OPSLS a joint CBS/CCl team since 2012. © Crown copyright Met Office

The 12 WMO-designated GPCs GPC name Centre System (ensemble:hindcast/forecast) Resolution (atmosphere) Hindcast period used Beijing Beijing Climate Centre Coupled (48/48) T63/L16 1983-2004 CPTEC Centre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies 2-tier (10/15) T62/L28 1979-2001 ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Coupled (15/51) T255/L91 1981-2010 Exeter Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled (12/42) 0.83x0.56°/L85 1996-2009 Melbourne Australian Bureau of Meteorology Coupled (30/30) T47/L17 1960-2010 Montreal Meteorological Service of Canada Coupled (20/20) T63 L31/L35 Moscow Hydromet Centre of Russia 2-tier (10/20) 1.1°x1.4°/L28 Pretoria South African Weather Service 2-tier (6/6) T42/L19 1981-2001 Seoul Korean Meteorological Agency 2-tier (20/20) T106/L21 1979-2012 Tokyo Japan Meteorological Agency Coupled (10/51) T95/L40 1979-2010 Toulouse Météo-France Coupled (11/51) T127/L31 1991-2010 Washington National Centres for Environmental Prediction Coupled (15/40) T126/L64 1982-2010 The 12 WMO-designated GPCs ET-OPSLS defined: designation criteria minimum forecast products verification requirements Graham et al. 2011, Clim Res

GPCs and Lead Centres 12 designated GPCs; 2 designated Lead Centres Designated Lead Centre: verification LC-SVSLRF (BoM & CMC) Designated Lead Centre: forecasts LC-LRFMME (KMA & NCEP) 746 users, 117 countries RCC RCC RCC RCOF NMHS © Crown copyright Met Office

GPC minimum products and data supply to LC-LRFMME http://www.wmolc.org Mandatory calibrated probability forecasts for tercile categories of: 2m temperature; precipitation; SST (applies only to GPCs using coupled models) Range: at least first 3 months following month of issue available on GPC website (graphical products and/or data) Provided to LC-LRFMME monthly anomalies for all ensemble members for: 2m temperature, precipitation; MSLP; SST; 850hPa temperature; 500 hPa height hindcasts also supplied by most GPCs GDPFS: Global Data Producing and Forecasting Systems © Crown copyright Met Office 5

February forecasts of MAM ensemble mean precipitation anomaly, Greater Horn of Africa – used at GHACOF36 (from LC-LRFMME) © Crown copyright Met Office

MAM multi-model precipitation anomaly LC-LRFMME deterministic multi-model products for MAM 2014 - user interactive MAM multi-model precipitation anomaly 12 model ensemble mean 4 two-tier models 8 coupled models © Crown copyright Met Office

9-GPC multi-model probabilistic forecast, MAM 2014 MAM precipitation © Crown copyright Met Office

LC-LRFMME model consistency, MAM and GHACOF36 consensus MAM consensus GHACOF36 Held in Entebbe, coordinated by ICPAC 35 40 25 Number of models with negative/positive ensemble-mean anomalies © Crown copyright Met Office

GPC products from LC-LRFMME website: DJF 2010/11: ensemble mean pmsl anomaly Exeter ECMWF Toulouse Washington Beijing Melbourne Tokyo Observed anomalies Seoul Montreal Pretoria

The Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) Example page from draft GSCU Mark 0 LC-LRFMME temperature precipitation International consensus on current state of climate plus outlook next for 3 months; Will extend existing ‘state of climate’ bulletins and El Niño/La Niña updates; Addresses: major climate modes and indices, temperature and precipitation; Users: RCCs, NMHSs and RCOFs (later: interpretation for globally acting users, e.g. aid agencies); illustrative Being developed by CCl Task Team for GSCU, with CBS - priority activity in the implementation plan for the GFCS

Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts (SVSLRF) Scores for probability forecasts: Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and scores Reliability and sharpness diagrams Score for deterministic forecasts: Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) and 3 component decomposition Lead Centre: LC-SVSLRF operated by CMC (Montreal) and BoM (Melbourne) http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/index.html © Crown copyright Met Office

Example LC-SVSLRF GPC reliability and sharpness, ROC diagrams and ROC maps: precip, tropics, DJF, 1-month lead Reliability and sharpness ROC 2 models from JMA, 1 from Canada (MSC) and the UKMO (labelled as test) JMA hybrid very reliaible ROC skill map © Crown copyright Met Office

LC-SVSLRF ROC scores lower tercile MAM precip, GHA 0.7 © Crown copyright Met Office

WMO workshop on Operational Long-range Forecasting: GPCs and RCCs in support of NMHSs and RCOFs 25-27 November 2013 INMET, Brasilia, Brazil https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/DPFS-index.html

Workshop conclusions/recommendations: on ET-OPSLS agenda this week Use of GPC and LC products is well established at RCCs and RCOFs, GPC and LC products are, in many cases, essential for their operations There is a need for: improved availability/accessibility of forecast/hindcast data; improved availability and consistency of verification info; new products: ocean and atmosphere indices, extremes seasons; longer lead time and earlier issue of LC-LRFMME products; Capacity development contributions: training of RCC/NMHSs in forecast interpretation and post-processing tools, guidance manuals; improved GPC/RCC/NMHSs interaction: annual workshop on long-range forecasting; improved communication of operational needs to research (WGSIP): e.g. subseasonal prediction, development of new products (e.g. sea-ice extent), evaluation of RCM downscaling of seasonal forecasts. © Crown copyright Met Office

Thank you! Any questions?

Current Task Teams (TT) under the ET-OPSLS TT1: Organise workshop on Operational Long-range Forecasting: GPCs and RCCs in support of NMHSs and RCOFs (hosted by INMET, Brasilia, Nov 2013) Main focus on seasonal range TT2: Develop revised strategies for verification exchange TT3: Scoping/implementation of sub-seasonal forecasts TT4: Scoping/implementation of longer-than-seasonal forecasts (multi-annual to decadal) © Crown copyright Met Office

GPC designation criteria have fixed production cycles and time of issuance; provide an agreed minimum set of long-range forecast products; provide an agreed set of forecast skill measures (WMO Standard Verification System for LRF); provide up-to-date information on forecast methodology used; make products accessible to users through website and/or GTS/internet GDPFS: Global Data Producing and Forecasting Systems (adapted from manual on the GDPFS) © Crown copyright Met Office 19

CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS: 1st term of reference (of 9) On the basis of requirements from Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) , Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services…. …and in the context of the Climate Services Information System of the Global Framework for Climate Services… …guide future development, outputs and coordination of components in the production of long-range forecasts. ….[namely], Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long-range Forecasts and associated Lead Centres for multi-modelling and verification. Membership: representatives from the 12 WMO-designated GPCs plus two CCl representatives GDPFS: Global Data Producing and Forecasting Systems © Crown copyright Met Office 20

Hindcast periods of GPCs 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 GPC1 GPC2 3 . 12 © Crown copyright Met Office