Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results Alex Körner, François Cuenot Transforming Transportation, 18th January 2013

Content Introduction Methodology FE/CO2 Results by country FE/CO2 Global results 2010-2011 OECD deep-dive New Fleet key technical characteristics evolution Conclusions

Introduction Update of the 2011 “International comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and related characteristics” IEA-authored GFEI working papers: Adding 2010 and 2011 Adding Korea and Canada to cover G19 (KSA missing) sponsored by UNEP-raised GEF SSFs and EU commission grants. New report to be released in March

Methodology New vehicle registrations data from Polk By brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power,…but: Vehicle segment/class missing Empty weight is missing CO2/FE missing: Manual input based on model sales sampling Satisfactory representativity when CO2/FE >75% of sales Making number match official numbers when available

Vehicle Segments

Data sources for FE / CO2 information No test cycle conversion

gCO2 emissions per km for new PLDVs

Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs - OECD

OECD 2010-11 progress deep dive Average emissions (gCO2/km) Emission reduction rate Market growth 2010 2011 2010 - 2011 France 130.5 127.7 -2.1% Italy 132.7 129.5 -2.4% -11.6% EU 27 140.3 135.7 -3.3% -9.6% Japan 140.5 134.4 -4.3% -16.4% Turkey 145.2 139.3 -4.1% 16.4% UK 144.2 138.1 -4.2% -4.4% Germany 151.2 145.6 -3.7% 8.8% Chile 163.7 160.8 -1.8% 22.4% South Korea 171.3 171.5 0.1% 0.6% Mexico 186.2 180.8 -2.9% 17.4% Canada 190.5 189.6 -0.4% 1.4% USA 194.7 192.8 -0.9% 9.9% Australia 207.9 204.2 -2.6% 165.1 164.3 -0.5%

Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs – Non-OECD

FE progress tracking vs. GFEI target New vehicles in OECD almost achieve the GFEI annual fuel consumption reduction target New vehicles in Non-OECD show a slight annual fuel consumption reduction over the last three years The global reduction rate is still far off the target due to a shift in market from OECD to non-OECD Each year lost makes the target harder to be reached

PLDVs by segment

FE by vehicle size Shift towards bigger vehicle prevented FE improvement in non-OECD

PLDVs by displacement

PLDVs by power

LCV influence – country dependant

Future updates Engage countries/OEMs in providing their official registrations data for this work Partially worked in Chile with the ICCT/CmCh baseline report Links with Renault and the AAA (data provider for OICA) Parametric analysis to be done by KG Duleep using FIA Foundation funding Cross-database access sharing with all GFEI partners

Conclusions Improvement rate has accelerated in OECD markets, and is almost matching the GFEI target rate Policies (and GFEI actions) fruitful In non-OECD, situation does not show much progress More policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed, especially to limit vehicle size shift. Lot of potential analysis from the database More resources would be welcome

Thank You francois.cuenot@iea.org