The EU Fruit & Vegetable Synthetic Regional Vulnerability Index (SRVI) EuMed Agpol Project Annual meeting Montpellier, 17th - 19th, May, 2006 The EU Fruit & Vegetable Synthetic Regional Vulnerability Index (SRVI) Jean-Louis Rastoin, Nassima Ayadi, Jean-Claude Montigaud Agro.Montpellier, Inra, UMR Moisa

Theoretical Background Vulnerability depends on capabilities level (Sen, 1985) Capabilities are constituted by actors resources & competencies (RBV, Wernerfelt, 1984) and macro-economic & institutional framework (North, 1990) To estimate regional vulnerability, we have to characterize the “filière” (supply chain, marketing channels), and its embeddedness (economic & institutional environment)

Methodology Survey at regional level (EU nuts 2) Construction of a multi-criteria Index for each region based on “supply to consumer chain” analysis with SSP (Scherer, 1973) and GVC (Gereffi, 1994) models Identification of forecast scenarios Benchmarking (ranking) of the Regions sample on a synthetic index basis

The Synthetic Regional Vulnerability Index (SRVI) Linear function of 4 “scores” IVR = 1/ (FF&V) x  + (PF&V) x  + (MCE) x  + (RWI) x  , , , , weighting coefficients The 4 scores (“strategic levels” of SCC) FF&V : Fresh fruit & vegetable sector PF&V : Processed Fruit & vegetable MCE : Marketing channels enterprises RWI : Regional Wealth Indicator Weighting coefficient are estimated by expertise and simulations

Strategic level Economic indicator The SRVI Components Strategic level Economic indicator Fresh F&V score F&V total production Production increase Average production by farm Investment rate Subsidy rate Gross margin ratio Labour productivity Production cost Specialization Product geographic indication

Strategic level Economic indicator The SRVI Components Strategic level Economic indicator Processed F&V score Enterprises total sales 5 years sales change Average production by firm Net margin ratio Labour productivity Structure of production cost Raw material input Interests and taxes Specialization

Strategic level Economic indicator The SRVI Components Strategic level Economic indicator MCE score (F&V wholesalers and Food wholesalers) Enterprises total sales -5 years sales change -Number and size of firms Gross and net margin ratio Labour productivity Return on investment Financial autonomy

Strategic level Economic indicator The SRVI Components Strategic level Economic indicator RWI (Regional wealth) Total population Population density -Demographic rate of increase -Total GDP -GDP/capita R&D ratio

The RVI calculation principle For each indicator i : Value for region j / Average of all regions Algebraic sum of i values = score value (FF&V, PF&V, MCE, RWI)

The sample

The 4 scenarios

Main results (scenario 4)

Discussion Results are globally conform to empiric observations (i.e. F&V SCC is a global value chain driven by retailers) SRVI reflects industry performances, but also economic environment situation Limits of databases : RICA, Amadeus representativeness and errors Strong heterogeneity of F&V sector between regions and products Asymmetries between chain actors Corporate governance : localization of firms headquarters (where is the decision-making ?)

Conclusion : Some proposals to link together WPs Assumptions - EU Import increase from SEMC (CAPRI & Delphi results) => - Market loss for EU med countries => - F&V production decrease (Yd) => - F&V producers revenue loss Yd regional estimation (for each EU med country): Yd for region j = (RVIj / Sum RVIj) x (National import increase or loss in national agricultural income)

Proposal to link up WPs: possible weighting coefficient for loss calculation by region

Proposal to link together WPs Possibility to estimate impact by sub-sector: Fresh Fruit (23 EU SEMC regions) Fresh vegetable (24 regions) Fresh F&V (34 regions) Processed F&V (63 regions) (Biggest EU SEMC production regions)