Mexican Americans and Politics: Concluding Observations Lecture 17 March 14, 2006

Lopez and Pantoja Thesis: A study of multiple-racial/ethnic populations (Blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans) that assesses racial attitudes toward policies that are opportunity enhancing or outcome directed (different forms of Affirmative Action) Method: Multivariate analysis of the Multi-city Survey of Urban Inequality

Themes for the Course Historical foundations of Mexican American politics Emergence of Latino pan-ethnicity and consequences for Mexican Americans Civic and political engagement Public policy Underlying questions in each section How do Mexican Americans organize to overcome barriers How does immigration change the politics of Mexican American communities

What We Know About the Future Mexican American/Latino populations will grow Intra-Latino diversity will increase The Mexican American presence will expand in new parts of the United States The first (immigrant) generation will make up a declining share of the Mexican American population In the short term (and probably the long term), Mexican Americans will need to rely on coalitional politics to achieve their political and policy goals

Population Composition, 2000-2100 (current immigration levels)

Mexican American Share of Latino Population 1973-2002

Latin American Legal Immigration, 2002 Mexican Share 58 percent

Estimate—Composition All Latin American Immigration, 2002 Mexican Share 64 percent

Destination States, Mexican Legal Immigrants 2002 (2500+) California (97,293) Texas (43,524) Illinois (11,821) Arizona (7,932) Colorado (4,107) Florida (3,596) New Mexico (3,575) Nevada (3,308) Georgia (2,531) Washington (2,518)

Immigrant/Native Shares – Mexican American Population

Latino Age Composition, 2000 Immigrants / U.S. Born

What We Can Reasonably Expect Current trends will not continue Long-term demographic trends unreliable Immigration at high rates has continued longer than in previous American history A backlash likely to emerge Backlashes can mobilize (while slowing immigration) Remember that Mexican Americans, and particularly Mexican American citizen voters, are not supporters of immigration at current levels

Identity in Flux Even if current trends continue Race/ethnic identities change Mexican American identity faces four challenges Rise of second and third+ generations Pan-ethnicity Decline in the salience of ethnic identity Emergence of institutionally sanctioned and recognized multi-racial/multi-ethnic identities

Generational Composition of Hispanic Population: 1960-2030 28 28 28 9 17 9

Population Growth Ensures that Influence Will Increase But, It will not grow as quickly as population – resources for mobilization low Competition for Mexican American political support often weakened by structural factors outside community’s control Community leadership is weak and not growing Consequence Risk of alienation Confusing distance with exclusion

Villaraigosa Election Offers a Possible New Model Los Angeles shares political characteristics with other major urban areas Latino plurality, with Latino electorate making up a smaller share of voters than does Latino population of total population Rich pool of Latino leaders at the council/school board level Tensions – arguably fears – of Latino empowerment in African American communities White leaders who are skilled at dividing minority communities Divisions within Latino elites – concerns about raising prominence of others

Yet, Villaraigosa Was Able to Win (After a Loss in 2001) How? Latino unity and division among other electorates “Division” misses key Villaraigosa victories White and African American elites Young African Americans Liberal whites Weak opponent Nevertheless, Villaraigosa has energized Los Angeles political elites and centralizing power in the office of the mayor

So The future is bright But, the future may be further away than many believe If that future is too far off, many will move away from a Mexican American identity Immigration continually reinforces identity Immigration “reforms,” if implemented, will likely reduce immigration, particularly Mexican immigration 2nd and beyond generations will make up increasing share of the Mexican American population Will Mexico / Mexican American identity be of importance, particularly if immigration declines?