1. Mexican American Electoral Participation: Opportunities and Limits
Mexican Americans and Politics
Lecture 12
February 16, 2006

2. Upcoming Events Essay 2, due February 23 – Next Thursday
Midterm, March 2 – Two weeks from today

3. White, Black, Latino, and Asian American Turnout, 2004
Turnout (among adults)
Turnout (among citizen adults)
Non-Hispanic White
65.8%
67.2%
Non-Hispanic Black
56.3%
60.0%
Latino
28.0%
47.2%
Asian Pacific Islander
30.7%
44.6%

4. Latino Turnout, 1996, 2000, and 2004 Latino Adults (,000)
Latino Voters (,000)
Turnout %
Citizen Turnout %
1996
18,426
4,928
26.7
44.0
2000
21,598
5,934
27.5
45.1
2004
27,129
7,587
28.0
47.2

5. Take Away Points
Consistent gap between Latino and non-Hispanic white participation in national elections
Controlling for differential levels of non-U.S. citizenship closes, but does not eliminate, the gap

6. Why the Gap? Demographic/compositional factors
Mobilization/leadership/networks
Assertions that Mexican Americans don’t vote because they don’t want to or are disinterested in U.S. politics have no support
A few examples of Mexican Americans/Latinos voting at higher rates that Anglos
Possibly LA City elections in the late-1990s/early 2000s

7. Demographic/Compositional Factors
Demographic/compositional factors that generally work to the disadvantage of Mexican Americans
Citizenship
Age
Education
Income
State of residence – residence in states with few competitive elections

8. Mobilization/Leadership Networks
People respond to being asked to participate
So, institutions must be in place to ask
Political factors drive whether resources will be invested
Campaigns and candidates invest in individuals who have voted in the past
No equivalent investment in people who haven’t participated
Mexican Americans, consequently, often neglected (and repeatedly neglected)

9. Which of these Will Come into Play in 2008?
Compositional factors reduce Latino participation
Several states likely to be competitive
Florida
New Mexico
Maybe – Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada
Some candidates could generate excitement
Bill Richardson could energize some Latinos
An anti-immigration candidate, like Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO), could mobilize Latinos in opposition

10. Can Mobilization Overcome These Gaps?
Yes, but
Incentives to create new mobilizing institutions have existed since the 1970s
To appear in 2008 would require leadership, money, and an issue (opportunity or threat)
Why?
Civic networks are weaker in Latino communities
Unions playing a new role
Parties and campaigns have short-term goal: to win
Mobilizing takes a longer view and this takes resources

11. Would Mexican American Electorate Change if Non-Voters Voted?
It would certainly grow in numbers (2004)
7,587,000 Latino voters
8,501,000 adult citizen non-voters
11,041,000 adult non-U.S. citizens
Political leanings of Mexican American non-voters, including non-U.S. citizens, similar to those of Mexican American voters
Mexican American electorate would become more Democratic, younger, and poorer
Also, more Californian and more urban

12. Biggest Debate in Media/Party Discussions of Latino Electoral Politics
Not, why don’t more Latinos vote, but
are Latinos becoming Republican?

13. Argument Made by Republican Leaders
Mexican Americans are self-professed conservatives
Who are more likely than other Democrats
To oppose abortion and be socially conservative
To support the death penalty and the military
Also more like to own small businesses
Bush has made personal inroads
Bush speaks Spanish
1998 Texas gubernatorial campaign
Spanish-language ads in Iowa, 2000 Caucuses

14. All Correct, but Misunderstand Mexican American Community
They are big government conservatives
Interesting research question – what does conservatism mean in Mexican American communities?
Delivery of social services top agenda
Bush’s personal appeal to some Mexican Americans has not translated to Republicans
Exit polls of Mexican Americans/Latinos not too accurate
“Ricochet pander”—Goal of Bush outreach not necessarily Latino votes

15. Latino Partisanship—Rule of Thumb (Outside Florida)
Going into a competitive election
Democrats have 60 percent of the Latino vote
Republicans have 20 percent
Remaining 20 percent up for grabs
In Florida, reverse the party names
Bush 2000 – percent of the Latino vote (assume low 30s)
Bush percent of the Latino vote
Does this reflect a fundamental change in Mexican American and Latino voting patterns?
Wait for next class!

16. For Next Time
Review the essay question and write a thesis statement that you believe that you have sufficient evidence to support. We will talk about the essay at the beginning of class Tuesday.
Why do Leal, et al. think the National Exit Poll is wrong?
Do you find their argument and their evidence convincing?