1. Mexican Americans/Latinos and National Elections
Mexican Americans and Politics
Lecture 13
February 21, 2006

2. Essay 2
Mexican Americans have not yet seen political power commensurate with their numbers. In an essay, asses what factors explain this gap in the contemporary era (the period since the extension of the VRA to Mexican Americans and other Latinos in 1975). What resources do Mexican American communities have at their disposal today to overcome the factors that you identify as reducing their political influence?

3. Latino Electoral Participation, 1976- 2004

4. Latino Share of the Total Vote, 1976-2004

5. Popular Perception of the Importance of Latino Votes
2000 and 2004—Both major party candidates sought Latino votes
Karl Rove asserted that Republicans needed 40 percent of 2004 Latino votes to ensure Bush reelection
Why?—empowering influences
Population growth
Population concentration
The “expectations game”
Partisanship / partisan loyalty
Empowering
- Population growth
- The Electoral College
- Voter registration / naturalization assistance
- Party outreach to Latinos and to Latino leaders
- Increase in number of Latino elected officials

6. But, Latinos Rarely Shape Electoral Outcomes
Most dramatic examples
—only one state’s presidential vote changed by change in the Latino vote
2001 mayoral races in New York, Los Angeles, and Houston
2003 California recall race
Why?—dampening influences
Non-U.S. citizenship
Demographics—age, income, education
Low competition for seats in Latino areas

7. Story Not All Negative
Incremental growth means steadily increasing importance in close races
Villaraigosa victory in Los Angeles
A topic for Thursday
Next generation of possible national candidates
Bill Richardson
Antonio Villaraigosa ?

8. How Can Latino Influence Increase?
Controlled by Latino communities
Community unity
An agenda of community needs and issues
Out of their control
Close races
Latino candidates
Party and candidate outreach
Mobilization
Voting not automatic
It helps when someone asks

9. Latinos and Presidential Elections
Gap between rhetoric and reality most evident
Change, if it is to occur, most likely to be seen at the local level

10. 2000 and 2004 Elections in Retrospect
A new dynamic—Republican competition for Mexican American votes
Anticipating future electoral growth vs. the “ricochet pander”
Symbolic outreach, little substantive outreach
Candidates never spoke to Latino concerns or placed Latinos in senior positions in their campaigns
Latino turnout remained low
Competitive states mostly not Latino states
Little Latino-driven mobilization
Few competitive local elections in Latino areas

11. Are Republicans Making Inroad Among Mexican Americans?
Story mostly focuses on presidential politics
Some targeted Republican outreach to specific constituencies, e.g. fundamentalist churches, some outreach to the newly naturalized
But, little change in registration patterns
Little change in Republican share of Mexican American registered voters since 1980s
Long-term question among Mexican Americans who have weak connections to larger community
2004 may signal a change in “national” presidential politics

12. National Exit Poll Reported 41-43% Latino Support for Bush
Up from 29-38% support in 2000
Ranges in both years indicate problems with exit polling of Latinos
Did Bush gain in 2004?
Did he gain as much as the poll suggests?

13. For Next Time
Why didn’t the Bustamante candidacy excite the Mexican American electorate?
Why didn’t Bustamante win?
What changes would have had had to occur for him to win?