National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Weekly Outlook Briefing Jeff Garmon and Don Shepherd Wednesday 31 August 2011 Self introduction and introduction of topic.

This outlook is intended for interests across interior southeast Mississippi, southwest and south central Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and the adjacent Gulf coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida

Current Weather Pattern Wed 31 August High pressure over the southeast will limit significant thunderstorm activity through today. We are watching a tropical wave moving northwest out of the western Caribbean today. This tropical disturbance is bringing increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf. Tropical Wave

H Upper Level Trough

Forecast Weather Pattern Sun 4 September The low pressure center is expected to be off the Texas or Louisiana coasts by the weekend. Numerous thunderstorms on the east side of the low pressure system will likely move northwest off the Gulf…increasing our rain chances through the Labor Day Weekend. Seas of 6-8 feet offshore is expected with an increased risk of dangerous rip currents at the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Forecast Weather Pattern Tue 6 September The low pressure center is expected to remain over the western Gulf through the middle of next week. There is a lot of uncertainty in the eventual track and strength of this low pressure system. As we get into the late week timeframe, additional data will likely help refine the forecasts.

5 Day Rainfall Amounts Wed-Mon No flooding impacts from heavy rains are currently forecasted for our region, however that could change based on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. Stay tuned to later forecasts.

Local Hazards Assessment Through Friday 2 September… A tropical wave over the Caribbean will move into the southern Gulf. Moisture will increase from the southeast, resulting in an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms south of Highway 84 each day. Saturday 3 September – Wednesday 7 September… There is the potential that a tropical low pressure system will form over the central or western Gulf of Mexico. This will result in an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region over the weekend through the middle of next week...especially along the coast. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS will increase along the beaches this weekend into next week…along with INCREASING SEAS over the northern Gulf. We will need to watch later developments with the Gulf low pressure system this weekend into next week.

To Contact NWS Mobile Phone… Public Line: 1-251-633-6443 Forecast and Warning Desk: 251-633-2471 (EMA / media use) Storm Reports Desk: 1-800-284-9059 (public / EMA / media use) Email (storm damage reports, etc)… sr-mob.weatherops@noaa.gov Web… http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob Facebook… http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Mobile.gov