Duffin Creek WPCP Optimized Renewal Planning & Decision-Making Faruque Mia: Infrastructure Engineer, Region of York Aman Singh: Lead Business Consulting, GHD Canada CNAM 2014 Conference Toronto, Ontario May 20-23, 2014

Agenda Duffin Creek WPCP Overview Infrastructure Management Framework Processes Data Requirements Implementation Plan

Duffin Creek WPCP Overview

Duffin Creek WPCP Overview Accepts wastewater flows from both the Regions of York and Durham Stage 3 built in 2010 to increase treatment capacity to 630 MLD Stages 1 & 2 undergoing renewal works

IM Framework – Overview Objectives Provide a systematic approach for optimizing decisions for infrastructure renewal planning Determine decision variables needed for renewal planning Develop frameworks that feed information into existing decision making processes for Infrastructure Renewal projects

IM Framework – Overview Approach Consider processes, data, systems, people Multi-level practice Prioritization and optimization Multi-year implementation

IM Framework – Processes 1 Establish Customer & Asset LOS, KPIs & Targets 2 Set Asset Hierarchy, Inventory & Baseline Data Requirements 3 Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data 4 5 Evaluate & Report Asset Performance Model Asset Deterioration 6 Assess Criticality & Risk 7 Optimize Renewal Decision Making Infrastructure Improvement Planning (IIP)

Set Asset Hierarchy, Inventory & Baseline Data Requirements 2 IM Framework – Set Asset Hierarchy, Inventory & Baseline Data Requirements ????

Model Asset Deterioration IM Framework – 5 Model Asset Deterioration Asset Deterioration Model CI(t) = Cnew*EXP(-((t/(TSL/-LN(Cpoor/Cnew)^(1/Alpha)))^Alpha))

Model Asset Deterioration IM Framework – 5 Model Asset Deterioration Self-Correcting Condition-Based Deterioration Model CI(t) = Cnew*EXP(-((t/(TlatestCdn/-LN(Clatest/Cnew)^(1/Alpha)))^Alpha)))

Model Asset Deterioration IM Framework – 5 Model Asset Deterioration Self-Correcting Condition-Based Deterioration Model

Model Asset Deterioration IM Framework – 5 Model Asset Deterioration Self-Correcting Condition-Based Deterioration Model

Assess Criticality & Risk IM Framework – 6 Assess Criticality & Risk Risk Assessment Data

Assess Criticality & Risk IM Framework – 6 Assess Criticality & Risk Weighted Risk Score

Assess Criticality & Risk IM Framework – 6 Assess Criticality & Risk Redundancy

Assess Criticality & Risk IM Framework – 6 Assess Criticality & Risk Risk Score → CI at Replace

Optimize Renewal Decision Making 7 IM Framework – Optimize Renewal Decision Making Service Life based on Failure State set by Risk Level

Optimize Renewal Decision Making 7 IM Framework – Optimize Renewal Decision Making Service Life based on Failure State set by Risk Level T(CI) = TCdn/(-LN(Clatest/Cnew))^(1/Alpha)*-LN(CI/Cnew)^(1/Alpha)

Optimize Renewal Decision Making 7 IM Framework – Optimize Renewal Decision Making Outputs Forecast Replacement Year & Cost Forecast Remaining Service Life Forecast Inspection Type & Timing Forecast 10-year Ave Annual Expenditure

Optimize Renewal Decision Making 7 IM Framework – Optimize Renewal Decision Making Outputs Forecast Replacement Year & Cost Forecast Remaining Service Life Forecast Inspection Type & Timing Forecast 10-year Ave Annual Expenditure

Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data 3 IM Framework – Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data Direct Condition Rating Grade Condition CI Deficiencies 1 Excellent 100 Very good physical condition – no wear & tear, no or minimum risk of failure Capacity appears adequate (where applicable) Performance meets expectation Minimum or no maintenance requirement 1.5 Excellent to Good 90   2 Good 80 Good physical condition – minor wear & tear, minimum risk of failure Minimum maintenance requirement 2.5 Good to Fair 70 3 Fair 60 Acceptable physical condition – moderate wear & tear, moderate risk of failure Performance still meets expectation Moderate maintenance requirement 3.5 Fair to Poor 50 4 Poor 40 Poor physical condition – heavy wear & tear, significant risk of failure Capacity appears still adequate (if applicable) Performance barely meet expectation Heavy maintenance requirement 4.5 Poor to Very Poor 30 5 Very Poor 20 Bad physical condition – heavy wear & tear, failure is imminent Asset cannot be operated safely without rehab or replacement

Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data 3 IM Framework – Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data Distress Survey

Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data 3 IM Framework – Inspect Infrastructure & Collect Data Condition Index

Evaluate & Report Asset Performance IM Framework – 4 Evaluate & Report Asset Performance Types Customer Asset Program

Evaluate & Report Asset Performance IM Framework – 4 Evaluate & Report Asset Performance Customer Cost of Wastewater Treatment & Disposal per Megalitre (at Duffin Creek WPCP) 5 Year Running Average Capital Reinvestment / Replacement Value •Capital Reinvestment / 1,000 ML Treated

Evaluate & Report Asset Performance IM Framework – 4 Evaluate & Report Asset Performance Asset Are we keeping our assets in the appropriate condition to adequately manage risk? Catastrophic CoF Assets: % of assets that exceed Cdn Grade 2 (worse than Good) For Major CoF Assets: % of assets that exceed Cdn Grade 3 (are worse than Fair) For Moderate CoF Assets: % of assets that exceed Cdn Grade 4 (are worse than Poor)

Evaluate & Report Asset Performance IM Framework – 4 Evaluate & Report Asset Performance Program Consistency in Renewal Cost Modeling Cost of Asset Renewal: Actual vs Budget Effectiveness of Asset End of Life Prediction Reactive Maintenance Ratio

IM Framework – Data Req’ts

Optimize Renewal Decision Making IM Framework – 7 Optimize Renewal Decision Making What is optimized decision making? Systematic search for lowest-cost renewal investment

Optimize Renewal Decision Making IM Framework – 7 Optimize Renewal Decision Making What is optimized decision making? Based on interaction of Cost trends (direct O&M, indirect) Condition trends (decay/survivor curve) Risk-consequence trends

Optimize Renewal Decision Making IM Framework – 7 Optimize Renewal Decision Making Optimization Forecast Lifecycle Costs for each option

Optimize Renewal Decision Making IM Framework – 7 Optimize Renewal Decision Making Optimization Select lowest-cost renewal investment

Implementation Plan Understanding the Gaps Addressing the Gaps

Questions? Contact Us: Faruque Mia Infrastructure Engineer, Region of York Faruque.mia@york.ca Aman Singh Lead Business Consulting, GHD Canada aman.singh@ghd.com