Michael Martin, David Lazarevic, Mathias Larsson and Graham Aid Carbon Vision? A Review of Biofuel Environmental Systems Analyses Research in Sweden Michael Martin, David Lazarevic, Mathias Larsson and Graham Aid Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Introduction Increase in Biofuel Production Worldwide Sweden- Over 11% Fuel from Biofuels in Transportation Ambitious Biofuel/Renewable Energy Targets Policy Development and Promotion of More Bio-Based Materials and Energy Increased Imports of Biofuels and Raw Materials for Biofuel Production Many Assessments of Biofuels in Recent Years to address whether Biofuels are Sustainable

Aims Is there a ´carbon vision´ in Environmental Systems Analyses of Biofuels in Sweden? Identify the salient impact categories used by Swedish research community in environmental assessments of biofuel production Determine if (and why) there is a carbon vision in Swedish ESA research on biofuel production Provide recommendations to broaden the focus of environmental sustainability assessments of biofuel production we mean the loss of peripheral vision concerning environmental impact categories other than carbon related impacts (i.e., CO2-eq) and indirect system consequences; or in other words, a dominant focus on carbon related impacts at the expense of other impact categories Tox EP OP CO2 POCP AP

Method Systematic Literature Review 2000-2014 Swedish Biofuel Research Scopus, Web of Science, Springer, F3 Reports Keywords: Biofuel, Biogas, Ethanol….etc. Combi-Words: LCA, Energy, Impacts, etc. 1118 Hits, 63 final reports and papers reviewed Results in Meta-Matrix

Impacts Reviewed in Research Results Impacts Reviewed in Research Prominent Focus GHG (GWP) Energy (En) Eutrophication (EP) Acidification (AP) Little Focus Resource Depletion (WD, AD) Toxicity (TP) Human Health (HH) GWP-Global Warming Potential, En-Energy Assessment, AP-Acidification Potential, EP-Eutrophication Potential, AD-Abiotic Resource Depletion, dLU- Direct land Use, LUC- Land use change, dLUC- Direct land use change, iLUC- Indirect land use change HH-Human Health, OD-Ozone layer depletion, PS-Photochemical Smog Creation, Pc-Particulate Emissions, TP-Toxicity Potential, POCP-Photochemical Oxidation Creation Potential, BD-Biodiversity, WD-Water Depletion

Analysis: LCIA Methods and Motivation Approach/Tools Study Type Total LCA 38 Environmental/Eco-Footprint 26 Energy Analyses 16 MFA 7 Economic Assessments 4 Motivation for Impact Categories Motivation Total Swedish/European Context 5 Policy Targets New Method/Technology 4 Importance of Biofuels 3 LCIA Methodology Outputs Gap in Research 2 LCIA/Charac. Method in LCAs Method Total IPCC 10 CML 3 EcoIndicator 99 EPD 2 EDIP 1 ReCiPe No Data 18 Few studies motivated limited impact categories, methods and goals of study

Why? Study Dependent Variables (Bottom-Up) Limited Goals of Assessments LCIA method development Uncertainty and Lack Transparent Methods and Data Need for Site/regional specific characterization factors Science-Policy Framework (Top-Down) Science-policy framework centered on Climate and Energy Biofuels originally assumed to reduce CO2 Renewable Energy Directive focus on Quantitative CO2eq emissions reductions Uncertainty of Methods- Not Included Hard to make a thorough analysis due to lack of justification/motivations in the studies

Conclusions and Recommendations Evidence points toward a focus primarily on GHG emissions and Energy Assessments in Swedish biofuel ESA research Study dependent variables (e.g. methods and data) may lead to narrow focus Climate and Energy Policy may also lead to a narrow focus Swedish Environmental Objectives should have a more prominent influence on trajectory of ESA research in Sweden More development necessary to improve assessment methods and data availability Transparency in Data and Methods in Papers/Reports and from industry Important to make assessments/methods feasible for industry

IVL-Swedish Environmental Research Institute Thank You Michael Martin IVL-Swedish Environmental Research Institute michael.martin@ivl.se

Swedish Environmental Objectives 1. Reduced Climate Impact 2. Clean Air 3. Natural Acidification Only 4. A Non-Toxic Environment 5. A Protective Ozone Layer 6. A Safe Radiation Environment 7. Zero Eutrophication 8. Flourishing Lakes and Streams 9. Good-Quality Groundwater 10. A Balanced Marine Environment, Flourishing Coastal Areas and Archipelagos 11. Thriving Wetlands 12. Sustainable Forests 13. A Varied Agricultural Landscape 14. A Magnificent Mountain Landscape 15. A Good Built Environment 16. A Rich Diversity of Plant and Animal Life

LCIA Methods and Impact Categories

Shifting the Burdens?