Institute for climate change and adaptation, University of Nairobi Household vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies of Maasai Pastoralist to climate change and variability in Kenya BY Bobadoye Ayodotun Institute for climate change and adaptation, University of Nairobi

Importance of the research to climate risk assessment and management The project identified Maasai pastoralist that are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability The Project integrated both indigenous and science climate knowledge to reduce risk of Maasai pastoralist to climate change and extremes The project enhanced the understanding of Indigenous knowledge of Maasai Pastoralist by researchers Enhanced pastoralist knowledge on climate change and adaptation Identified best adaptation practises that can reduce climate risk, especially drought among Maasai pastoralist

BACKGROUND

Project Barriers inadequate climate and socio-economic data on Maasai pastoralist from relevant organization Assessing difficult terrains to access and interact with Maasai communities Building trust with the Maasai communities Lack of funding: About 90% of the research was funded by the researcher and the lack of funding limited the full achievement of the objectives of the study

Comparing Pastoralist perception on climate change to meteorological evidence

Comparing Pastoralist perception on temperature to meteorological evidence

Comparing Pastoralist perception on drought to meteorological evidence

Traditional ways of forecasting rainfall among Maasai Pastoralist Forecasting indicators Rainfall Prediction Safari ants Direction of ants movement used for predicting rainfall Animal intestine Shape and colour of slaughtered intestine of cows used for rainfall prediction Pattern of stars Used to predict unset of raining season Restlessness of Animals Restlessness of Zebras and Giraffes for predicting rainfall

Household vulnerability analysis of Maasai Pastoralist to drought and dry spell The approach combines both socio-political and biophysical indicators jointly developed by the Maasai communities and researcher in analysing vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability was measured as a function of adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity Principal component analysis was used to generate weight for the indicators and also calculate household vulnerability index The households’ vulnerability was categorized in into: highly vulnerable; moderately vulnerable; and less vulnerable A vulnerability map showing the highly vulnerable, vulnerable and less vulnerable areas was produced using ArcGIS 10.3 software package.

Household Vulnerability Measurement The indicators used for calculating vulnerability index were jointly selected by the pastoralist communities and researcher Vulnerability index was calculated using the formula below: Vi = (A1X1J + A2X2J + ……… + AnXnj) – (A1Y1j + A2Y2j + ……….. AnYnj) Where Vi = vulnerability index Xs = indicators for adaptive capacity Ys = indicators for exposure and sensitivity As = First component score of each variable computed using PCA.

Percentage of number of households in each vulnerability level by wards

Maps showing the levels of vulnerability of households and communities in the study area

Level of importance of adaptation strategies to Maasai pastoralist households

Agreed best adaptation practices for Maasai pastoralist Effective early warning system Index based Livestock insurance Livelihood diversification Cooperative societies and table banking Rainfall harvesting and addressing water problem Child education Improved livestock marketing programme Migration

Lessons learnt and Adaptive response Maasai pastoralist are rich in indigenous knowledge that are useful for adaptation planning Integrating indigenous knowledge and climate science enhanced decision making and reduces the risk of Maasai pastoralist to climate change and its extremes There is disparity in the vulnerability levels of households within communities and also among wards in Kajiado east Adaptation strategies adopted by the pastoralist are largely autonomous and are unlikely to build resilience of pastoralist livelihoods. Planned adaptation actions are needed to respond to current and anticipated impacts of climate change and reduce risk of Maasai pastoralist to climate change and its extremes

IMPORTANCE OF THIS PROJECT TO OTHER STAKEHOLDERS The study built the capacity of pastoralist to understand and respond to climate change and variability Vulnerability maps are useful for interventions and adaptation planning by county government, National government and relevant NGOs International research organizations and relevant adaptation funding organization have relevant information on vulnerability and adaptation need of pastoralist The study provided both indigenous and science climate knowledge to enhance decision making by relevant stockholders and reduce risk of pastoralist to climate change

CONCLUSION Climate change and its impact is evident in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Indigenous knowledge is important in planning adaptation strategies in rural areas. Climate risk management among pastoralist therefore requires collaboration among stakeholders and integration of various sources of knowledge The project enhanced climate knowledge of stakeholders through the climate adaptation manual jointly developed by the Maasai communities and researchers

NEXT STEP There is the need to understand the impact of Increasing fragmentation and privatization of land on pastoralist livelihood among Maasai pastoralist Integrated review of planned adaptation strategies among pastoralist in Kenya to identify the best practises that can reduce the risk of pastoralist livelihood to climate change and its extremes