Martine Durand Chief Statistician, OECD

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Presentation transcript:

Martine Durand Chief Statistician, OECD Nowcasting techniques to improve timeliness 30th CCSA, Muscat, Oman - 27-28 September 2017 Martine Durand Chief Statistician, OECD

Background Growing demand - from markets, analysts, policy makers - for more timely data. With ‘information gaps’ increasingly filled by private providers – sentiment indicators, Google Trends. Putting pressure on relative importance given to accuracy, compared to timeliness, in official statistics.

Better meeting user needs… …through improvements in Compilation methods - new technologies may provide scope for improved timeliness without any impact on quality - e.g. digital data collection; Survey approaches: firms may be able to respond in a much more timely fashion than when surveys were first designed; and also through greater adoption of ‘nowcasting’ techniques.

OECD is experimenting with nowcasting OECD exploring nowcasting approaches to meet user demands both for bounded and unbounded domains, complementing efforts such as the CLI For GDP zone totals OECD aPaPPartner Country release lags for Quarterly GDP Estimates, % TiVA The iterative nowcasting procedure

But there are challenges OECD (and other IOs) efforts towards nowcasting are likely to be of lower quality, than those that could be undertaken by NSOs How to improve take-up of nowcasting approaches, without adversely affecting accuracy and credibility of statistics?

Issues for discussion by CSSA (1) What mechanisms should/could be used by international organisations to raise awareness within national statistics offices of nowcast approaches used and needed by IOs? Should national statistics agencies be encouraged to develop nowcast estimates of data they currently provide to international organisations, and, if so, what disclosure rules are needed? What standards and dissemination strategies are needed to determine if nowcast estimates can be published? Are common guidelines needed?

Issues for discussion by CSSA (2) Should a conference be organised/or surveys undertaken to determine practices across countries and IOs with a view to sharing international best-practices. To improve timeliness, what more can international organisations do, beyond nowcasting, to disseminate best practice in national statistics compilation methods and survey design/questions?