Assessment of Ecosystem Services in Galveston Bay Area Using InVEST Models Greg Guannel, Jorge Brenner, Joe Faries, Anne Guerry, Jennifer Proft, Jess Silver, Mike Thompson

Coastal Resilience Initiative Assess Risk and Vulnerability to coastal hazards Identify Solutions using built and nature-based infrastructure Take Action to implement adaptation solutions Measure Effectiveness of reducing risk www.slrportal.org http://gulfmex.coastalresilience.org

Galveston Bay Project Goal: Assess Nature-based Adaptation Solutions to Climate Change Study area: Focus in Galveston Bay Duration: Finalized by February 2014 Partners: Funding: Climate-Societal Interactions Project

Objectives Identify real world coastal planning question Assess capacity to provide benefits using InVEST models Quantify benefits provided by natural systems Envision management strategies that maximize resilience Products: Access to InVEST models & white paper Ecosystem services and InVEST models training Access to results through online Decision Support Tool

Setting with location of habitats and people

Ecosystem Services in the Bay Habitat Service Beaches Wetlands Seagrass Beds Oyster Reefs Blue Carbon - Storage and sequestration Fisheries Habitat (blue crabs, shrimps, …) Food+ Habitat Coastal Protection Erosion Waves and surge; Sediment loss; Runoff Waves and surge; Sediment loss Recreation All around fun, Boating, Rec. fishing , Bird watching Summary of svces in Bay

Quantification of Marine Ecosystem Services in Galveston Bay 1- Climate Stressors and Scenarios 2- Preliminary Outputs of Service Models 3- Conclusion

No trends in wave height, wind speed, temperature Climate Stressors No increase climatic forcing, except for SLR No trends in wave height, wind speed, temperature

Climate Stressors Sea level is rising SLR increases. Use this as scenario: 2050 and 2100 projections Sea level is rising

Marsh Type Mean SLR Projection 1 m SLR Projection 2 m SLR Projection Map of regularly flooded marsh for 2004, 2050 and 2100 Change in marsh footprint Marsh Type Mean SLR Projection 1 m SLR Projection 2 m SLR Projection Regularly flooded 11% 175% 43% Irregularly flooded -1% -49% -14% Transitional salt -21% 177% 38%

Study Objectives Carbon sequestration Fished species response to changes in coastal habitats Coastal Protection Water storage capacity of wetlands Attenuation of waves by oyster reefs Attenuation of waves by wetlands Attenuation of surge by wetlands Location and relative importance of recreation areas in the region

Carbon Stored – 2004 and 2050

Carbon Sequestered (Now – 2050)

Fisheries

Gain or Loss of Marsh Habitat? Habitat Change and Blue Crab Population Gain or Loss of Marsh Habitat?

Habitat Change and Blue Crab Population

Coastal Protection Overall – process of attenuation – get to service Then – need information on xyz

Coastal Protection marshes mangroves coral reefs seagrass beds Overall – process of attenuation – get to service Then – need information on xyz marshes mangroves coral reefs seagrass beds sand dunes oyster reef

Surge Modeling

Waves

Wetlands Attenuate Waves + Levee Height

Wetlands Can Replace/Help Structures interiorclip.com

Wetlands Can Replace/Help Structures interiorclip.com Surge Height Seawall Levee No Vegetation Levee Vegetation 1 m 3.5 m 0.5 m 0 m 2 m 4.5 m 2.5 m 1.2 m

Protect Marshes Computed average wave power using fetch distance and SLR on top of existing bathy+20yrs of wind records – increase in Wave power from present. This is threat mostly for marsh and beaches. bayareaobserver.com

Example Outputs: Oyster Reefs bayareaobserver.com Design Wave H=1m; T=3s

Oysters to the Rescue

Conclusion Quantify E.S. in Galveston using simple process based models Tons of carbon sequestered in wetlands Conserve wetlands = more blue crabs Wetlands reduce waves Oyster reefs can protect wetlands

Future Steps Storm surge analysis Shrimp population model Recreation Valuation - $ mymauisunset

Evaluating changes in habitat using SLAMM Gain or Loss of Marsh Habitat?