OCBC March 7th Peter Mather, Group Regional Vice President, Europe

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Presentation transcript:

OCBC March 7th 2012 Peter Mather, Group Regional Vice President, Europe

Today’s agenda The Outlook for Energy The Factors behind Energy Policy BP – our own and the Industry’s Challenges Discussion

Non-OECD economies continue to drive consumption growth

Fuel substitution is the main story in the OECD

Energy consumption growth by sector

Convergence of energy intensity and fuel shares

Four key factors in our energy future Demand Growth economic growth urbanisation efficiency Security of Supply import dependence resource competition Environmental Constraints local pollution climate change Supply Challenges significant resources infrastructure alternatives Energy Policy & Technology Demand Growth rapid GDP growth esp. in developing countries growth of megacities changing customer preferences potential for demand side intervention Supply & Resources significant hydrocarbon resource potential misalignment between resource location and demand growing supply challenges growth of unconventionals Security of Supply continuing governance failures in producing countries significant rise in import dependence new policy initiatives to enhance energy security growing competition for energy resources Environmental Constraints climate change and potential for carbon constraints tightening of regulation relating to local pollution increasing scrutiny for extractive industries Technology

External Context Gulf of Mexico incident - BP Reputation – focus on safety, trust, value - Industry Reputation Oil prices Global Economy Geopolitics Political Imperatives - Energy Security - Affordability - Climate Change

BP has seen change before 1972-75: Iraq, Iran, Kuwait nationalised 1933: Kuwait Oil Company formed (50/50 BP/Gulf) 1951: Temporarily nationalised in Iran; diluted to 40% 1998: Merger with Amoco 2003 TNK-BP 1908: Masjid-i-Suleiman discovery in Iran 1978: Sohio fully consolidated (100% 1987) 1968: Prudhoe Bay discovery 1970: Forties Production (mboe/d) North Sea & Alaska growth 1911: Iran starts producing 1927: Iraq Kirkuk discovery European refining expansion: by 1973 interests in 20 refineries Sohio brings entry into US downstream Acquisitions: 1998 Amoco 2000 Arco 2002 Veba 1975: Kuwait refinery nationalised 1951: Iran refineries nationalised Throughput (kbd) Slide Update: This slide is updated on an annual basis. Next update is due in July 2012 This slide is approved for External use Speaker’s Notes: Source: Competitor Intelligence. 1955: Kwinana commissioned 1913: Iran Abadan refinery starts-up 1938: Abadan the world’s largest refinery

Moving BP Forward Our 10 - point plan What you can expect What you can expect What you can measure Relentless focus on safety and managing risk Play to our strengths Stronger and more focused Simpler and more standardized More visibility and transparency to value Active portfolio management to continue New upstream projects onstream with unit operating cash margins double the 2011 average(1) Generate around 50% more annually in operating cash flow by 2014 versus 2011 at $100/bbl(2) Half of incremental operating cash for re-investment, half for other purposes including distributions Strong balance sheet In October we set out our 10-point plan - five points to expect and five to measure. We said we would focus relentlessly on safety, play to our strengths, and be stronger, more focused, simpler and more standardized. We promised to create more visibility and transparency to value. In terms of measures, you will see continuing active portfolio management. In October we announced an intention to pursue a further $15 billion of divestments, making a four year total of $45 billion by the end of 2013. With the subsequent termination of our previously announced divestment of Pan American Energy the total is now $38 billion. We expect to see new projects coming onstream with operating cash margins around double the 2011 upstream average by 2014 – at $100 oil, and excluding TNK-BP. You can expect us to generate an increase of around 50% in additional operating cash flow in 2014 compared to 2011 - approximately half from ending Gulf of Mexico Trust Fund payments and around half from operations. We plan to use around half that extra cash for re-investment and half for other purposes including shareholder distributions. And all of this will be underpinned by a strong balance sheet. (1) Assuming a constant $100/bbl oil price and excluding TNK-BP (2) See Statement of Assumptions under Cautionary Statement

Discussion