Early Warning Systems on Food and Agriculture Presentation by Stéphane Jost, Master in Human Development & Food Security Università Roma 3 - 8 June 2016

Early Warning Systems activities: Three main steps 1) Data collection 2) Data analysis 3) Dissemination of information

Meteorological conditions Cropped areas cropping conditions Transports and storage Pests, diseases Prices Consumption Governmental agricultural policies Trade, markets

national services (agrométéorology, Main sources of information come from national services (agrométéorology, hydrology, plant protection, statistics, ...).

Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions can also be organised

Three main components of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions

Collected information is included in databases a) Agroclimatic and agronomic data and statistics at national and sub-national levels

b) maps of boundaries, roads, rivers,...

c) Cropping zones. crop calendars

d) Satellite imagery: Cold Cloud Duration from METEOSAT

d) Satellite imagery: Vegetation coverage

d) Satellite imagery: creation of animated sequences For example, evolution of monthly CCD images during growing season in West Africa :

Vegetation Index in the Sahel – September, reference year d) Satellite imagery: Creation of difference images Vegetation Index in the Sahel – September, reference year Vegetation Index in the Sahel - September (mean) Vegetation Index in the Sahel - September (diff. - mean)

SPOT-4 VEGETATION difference image NDVI Difference image NDVI Difference SPOT-4 VEGETATION difference image

d) Satellite imagery: Precipitation d) Satellite imagery: Precipitation anomaly Second dekad of May 2016

d) Satellite imagery: Vegetation coverage – NDVI anomaly Second dekad of May 2016

2) Tools for data Analysis Main tools for analysis of the information  a) Windisp (Windows Display)  b) CCBS (Country Cereal Balance Sheets)  c) National Food Prices Utility

 a) WinDisp For example : Cereal production in Burkina Faso CCD dekadal image Crop zones for Sorghum Maps of roads, railways, cities,…

 a) WinDisp Other example of WinDisp display : (a) (b) (c) (d) - Vegetation images (a and b) - Difference image indicating drought affected areas (c) - And reference provincial wheat production map (d). (a) (b) (c) (d)

 b) Country Cereal Balance Sheets (CCBS)

 c) National Food Prices database http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool2/

3) Dissemination of information

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS in June 2016 (total: 3 countries)

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS in June 2016 (total: 3 countries) Country Main Reasons Changes from last report1 AFRICA ( 2 countries ) Central African Republic The widespread conflict, which caused large-scale displacements, the loss and depletion of households’ productive assets and input shortages continues to weigh on 2016 production prospects - Morocco Drought conditions have acutely weakened 2016 production prospects, particularly of winter cereals ASIA/NEAR EAST ( 1 country ) Timor-Leste Cereal production prospects indicate a reduced 2016 crop, for the second consecutive year +      - : Deteriorating + : New entry

COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD in June 2016 (total: 37 countries)   Shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies  Widespread lack of access  Severe localized food insecurity

COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD in June 2016 (AFRICA : 28 countries ) Nature of Food Insecurity Main Reasons Changes from last report1 Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies Central African Republic Conflict, displacements and constraints in available supplies The Internally Displaced Person (IDP) caseload declined from 452 000 in January 2016 to 419 000 in April, but it is still higher than in August 2015, when it was estimated at 378 000, before the resurgence of inter-communal violence. As of March 2016, 1.5 million people are estimated to be in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, 18 percent more than in April 2015. The significant tightening of food supplies has driven up prices. Zimbabwe Drought-affected 2016 production The El Nińo-induced drought resulted in a sharp decrease in the 2016 cereal production, which follows an already below-average 2015 output. The livestock sector has also been severely affected. The number people who require assistance is estimated at 2.8 million. Widespread lack of access Chad Large caseload of refugees puts additional pressure on local food supplies Over 377 000 refugees, 94 000 IDPs, as well as the return of an estimated 80 000 Chadians, continues to add pressure on local food supplies, negatively affecting food security. Over 1 048 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis. (…) -   No change   Deteriorating ^   Improving + New entry

Early Warning Systems on Food and Agriculture Master in Human Development & Food Security Università Roma 3 8 June 2016 Thank you for your attention