Global crude oil peak: where are we

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Presentation transcript:

Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg.com.au Twitter @crudeoilpeak Global crude oil peak: where are we? Australia’s oil vulnerabilities East coast: peak conventional gas and power shortages Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg.com.au Twitter @crudeoilpeak

US shale oil

10 years of high oil prices Low interest rates and quantitative easing Shale oil boom Asset bubbles Higher mountain of debt Budget deficits Company closures (car industry, refineries) Job losses OECD demand for China’s exports weakened Oil demand growth softened

80% of federal budget deficit caused by lower company tax after GFC

Impact of Australian refinery closures (1)

Impact of Australian refinery closures (2)

Impact of Australian refinery closures (3)

South China Sea – Exxon gas blocks cross 9-dash line

Peak oil in Asia Pacific Region

China demand for oil products

Peak oil in China

Shell earnings insufficient for investments

Exxon Mobil finances dividends from new debt

Oil CAPEX reduction

IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report 2017

Peak conventional gas east coast

Load shedding Tomago aluminium smelter

NSW electricity generation by fuel

Coal and gas generation problems

Hazelwood closure – VIC shortages summer 2017/18

NSW dependence on VIC imports

Parramatta CBD demand growth peakier

Planning implication #1: reduce immigration

Planning implications #2 Departments must become energy literate Many risky projects underway: NorthConnex, WestConnex, Epping-Chatswood rail tunnel conversion Review all growth plans, must first calculate energy requirements Value of power hungry towers and skyscrapers will drop Badgerys Creek airport assumes growing Asian middle class and power supply in Sydney’s hot West for decades to come Transurban sits on $12 bn debt: case for too big to fail Metro too expensive & CBD centric, serving new skyscrapers, doesn’t replace car traffic Light rail best solution but Sydney implementation is also too expensive compared to Europe

Thank you for your attention Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg. com Thank you for your attention Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg.com.au Twitter @crudeoilpeak

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