Summer and fall Weather outlook

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Presentation transcript:

Summer and fall Weather outlook Southwest Electric Distribution Exchange Conference April 26, 2016 We have made some changes to the drought presentation this month, thus changing the slide numbers as listed in the drought memo. Page 1 of the memo refers to the drought dashboard (water supply status), formally slide 4, has been removed from the presentation.

2015 rainfall

2015 rainfall departure from normal

2015 Texas weather stats Wettest year on record, with 41.13 inches (Previous record was 40.22 inches in 1941) Wettest January - June on record Wettest spring on record May was the wettest month ever recorded, with 9.06 inches.

May Record Rainfall

Texas May Rainfall Stats Rainfall averaged 9.06 inches. Wettest May on record. Wettest month ever (Previous was 6.66 inches in June 2004).

May 24th Wimberley flood

Memorial day Austin area flood

October 30th Central Texas rain event

April 15-18, 2016 Southeast Texas flood

April 15-18, 2016 Southeast Texas flood

House Park-Austin

May Floods Dallas-Fort Worth Area

Memorial Day Floods Houston

Wimberley Flood Memorial Day Weekend

Wimberley Flood Memorial Day Weekend

Dallas Area Post Christmas Tornadoes

2015 weather dominated by a strong El Niño USA China Australia

2015 tied with 1997 for strongest El Niño

Typical Effects of El Niño

Winter rains below normal

Warmest winter on record

Current Conditions

Year to date rainfall, departure from normal

Soil moisture anomaly

Tropical Pacific waters cooling

Summer and fall El Niño forecast La Niña

Weather outlook for 2016

May Aug Nov Jun Sep Jul Oct

May Aug Nov Temperature Jun Sep Jul Oct

Temperature Precipitation Temperature Rainfall

NWS Rainfall Outlook

NWS Rainfall Outlook

NWS temperature outlook

NWS temperature outlook

Outlook for 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2016 Hurricane Tracks

Sea surface temperature anomalies

Klotzbach/CSU outlook for 2016 season A near average season overall 12 named storms (12) 5 of the 12 storms becoming hurricanes (5) 2 major hurricane (2)

Accuweather outlook

WeatherBell outlook

2016 weather outlook El Niño will weaken from now into early summer. A weak to moderate La Niña expected by fall Above-normal rainfall expected through June. Trending drier than normal summer into fall Near normal temps. through May. Trending hotter than normal this summer and fall.

Questions? Bob Rose LCRA Chief Meteorologist bob.rose@lcra.org 512-578-3350

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