Livelihood Systems & their Vulnerability to high food prices WHERE? WHO? WHEN? WHAT?

Livelihood Systems & Seasonal Calendars – (approximates)

Pastoralists Continued dependence on food aid in some areas Deteriorating terms of trade Livestock disease affecting Uganda & Kenya Reduced mobilisation due to conflict & trade bans Asset bases depleted from past droughts To cope reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services Rely more on credit, gifts & remittance Move to urban/peri-urban

Impact in pastoral livelihood zone Scenario - 50% price increase & reduced food aid Impact on food sources Impact on expenditure Gap = 4 shoats The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 44% food deficit before coping

Urban & peri-urban Cost of living increased by up to 50% Asset bases (savings) depleting To cope Buy cheaper food direct from nearby rural farmers Reduce expenditure - # of meals, non-staple foods Reduce expenditure on water, soap, latrine etc (sanitation & hygiene) Limit expenditure on social services & move to cheaper rent Send (wife &) children to relatives or rural home Limit use of cooking fuel & transportation Rely more on credit, gifts & remit Seek employment opportunities or negative IGAs

Impact on urban poor – Mukuru Kwa Ruben Scenario - 50% price increase Impact on food sources Impact on expenditure Gap = 6,000-7000/- The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 40% food deficit before coping

Agro-pastoral/Farmers Examples from SNNPR, Ethiopia Food Sources - poor Income sources - poor

Agro-pastoral/Farmers Drought, conflict & displacement have affected production in the region Currently food secure but deteriorating rapidly – dependent on next harvest 25% increase in input costs & transportation Deteriorating terms of trade Asset bases depleted from past droughts – consume seeds To cope Seek alternative income – agricultural or off-farm Reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services Rely more on credit, gifts & remit Move to urban/peri-urban Poor Income = Ksh 20,000-60,000 Sale of own produce, unskilled income-generating activities (e.g. agricultural, fishing); collection & sale of firewood & sale of charcoal

Proportion of food from various sources by livelihood Own production Market Purchase Wild foods Gifts and Food Aid Pastoral 10-30% 30-50% 5-15% 10-50% Agro-pastoral 40-60% 40-50% 0-5% Marginal Agricultural 30-40% 55-65% High potential (mixed farming) 50-60% High Potential (Cereal and diary) 0% Urban (casual wages labour/trading) 0-10% 80-100%

What to keep in mind….. Response needs to be designed appropriately for different livelihoods Therefore, we need to know how people are living in different livelihood zones: Context esp. access to markets/trade flows/volumes How much they rely on the market to purchase food …...to sell produce & labour (income) How much they spend on non-food items & fuel And quantify their coping strategies (expandability) To understand how they will be affected by the “shock/s”, who will affected & when